Guesses On World Population Growth

Chuck Zimmerman

The green movement rhetoric seems to have ramped up lately. I guess a lot of people are watching too many end of the world movies? Whatever the reason is, it prompted our latest ZimmPoll question, “Do you think the world population will be 10 billion by 2050?” This prediction is being used by all kinds of organizations for all kinds of purposes. But how accurate is it? Here’s what you think. 40% said Exactly or really close; 24% said How can anyone know; 19% said Much more and 17% said Much Less. A lot of people point to a United Nations report for this number. However, they readily admit that no one can know. Here’s an excerpt from the 2004 report that says it pretty clearly. You can find the latest report with revisions here (pdf).

Projections recently issued by the United Nations suggest that world population by 2050 could reach 8.9 billion, but in alternative scenarios could be as high as 10.6 billion or as low as 7.4 billion. What will population trends be like beyond 2050? No one really knows. Any demographic projections, if they go 100, 200, or 300 years into the future, are little more than guesses. Societies change considerably over hundreds of years—as one can readily see if one looks back at where the world was in 1900, or 1800, or 1700. Demographic behaviour over such long time spans, like behaviour in many spheres of life, is largely unpredictable.

Our new ZimmPoll is now live. We’re asking the question, “How do you feel about the corn supply/demand status?” It has been a tough weather year in some areas of the corn belt. After listening to an NPR show yesterday that featured as a guest Bob Dinneen, Renewable Fuels Association, it was obvious there is a lot of worry and misinformation about our corn supply in the public and on the part of activist environmental groups. What do you think? Take our poll and feel free to comment. Thank you.

ZimmPoll is sponsored by Rhea+Kaiser, a full-service advertising/public relations agency.

ZimmPoll

Ethanol Industry Reacts to NAS Report

Cindy Zimmerman

The ethanol industry is challenging a new report from the National Academies of Science that questions the ability of the biofuels industry to meet current goals under the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) and the ability of biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the report, production of conventional biofuels and biomass-based diesel fuel will be adequate to meet the requirements of the RFS2, but whether the mandate for cellulosic ethanol can be met is “uncertain.”

“The capacity to meet the renewable fuel mandate for cellulosic biofuels will not be available unless the production process is unexpectedly improved and technologies are scaled up and undergo several commercial-scale demonstrations in the next few years. Additionally, policy uncertainties and high costs of production may deter investors from aggressive deployment, even though the government guarantees a market for cellulosic biofuels up to the level of the consumption mandate, regardless of price.”

RFA AECBrooke Coleman, executive director of the Advanced Ethanol Council (AEC) agrees that technological innovation and policy uncertainty are major hurdles for meeting the RFS2 goals for advanced biofuels. “The RFS is an aggressive, technology-forcing standard that needs complementary policy to be achieved, in much the same way that oil companies rely on a bevy of tax breaks and subsidies to protect the investments necessary to bring new sources of petroleum fuels online as known oil reserves become increasingly scarce,” said Coleman. “If we enact policies reflective of the goals set forth in the RFS, the advanced biofuels industry will emerge and the RFS targets will be met.”

Growth Energy
“You can read this report in a number of ways because the conclusions are based on variables that will undoubtedly change with technological advancements and innovation within the industry,” said Growth Energy CEO Tom Buis. “A continued commitment to the RFS will create the market certainty that is crucial for both first generation and second generation ethanol. But any effort to doubt or dismantle the RFS would block the growth of the industry and ultimately threaten American jobs, our environment and our energy security.”

Also “uncertain” according to the report is the “extent to which using biofuels rather than petroleum will reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” “The idea that the RFS may not be an effective strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is regrettable given the published science on the subject,” said Coleman. “Even with land use change considerations, advanced biofuels are the lowest carbon fuels being developed in the marketplace; far and away less carbon intensive than electricity, natural gas and even hydrogen fuel cells.”

advanced biofuels, AEC, Biodiesel, Environment, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Government, Growth Energy, RFA

Wisconsin Cheese Factory Promotes Renewable Energy

Cindy Zimmerman

Crave Brothers is promoting their commitment to the environment and renewable energy on the farm and in the farmstead cheese factory with a newly unveiled logo.

The new Crave Brothers Farmstead Cheese logo features a dairy cow inside a green circle with the words “Produced with Renewable Energy.”

In producing their family of award-winning artisan cheeses, the Crave Brothers use 100% green power, and practice water conservation and recycling. Their commitment is evident in their land management practices and in the way they care for their cows. As a carbon-negative company, they produce more electricity with their bio digester generator than they use for their dairy farm and cheese plant. Crave Brothers Farmstead Cheese goes one step further, too, inviting customers to join them in the quest for sustainability by reusing and recycling the cheese packaging. Customers can find this new logo on their cheese packages later in the year.

Crave Brothers Cheeses are created at a farmstead cheese factory in Waterloo, Wisconsin “where state-of-the-art technology promotes sustainability while maintaining traditional quality.”

biodigester, dairy, Energy, livestock

More Corn Stocks Positive for Ethanol

Cindy Zimmerman

More corn stocks than expected showed up in the latest report out from USDA on Friday, which was a pleasant surprise for the ethanol industry.

Despite the fact that corn stocks are reported to be 34% lower than a year ago, it was expected to be much worse, even just a few weeks prior to the Friday Grain Stocks report. Earlier this year, USDA was predicting corn stocks would finish the year at just 675 million bushels, less than a three-week supply. But as of September 1, stocks instead totaled 1.13 billion bushels, with disappearance over the summer months indicated at 600 million less bushels than last year.

The immediate effect of the report was lower prices and a little more breathing room for the industries that rely on corn, like ethanol. “Pushing corn stocks back above one billion bushels is important for the psyche of the market,” said Renewable Fuels Association Vice President Geoff Cooper. “Having more corn available should somewhat ease supply concerns brought on by poor growing conditions this year and provide more of a buffer until farmers complete the harvest of this year’s crop.”

With corn prices higher this summer, livestock producers may have been using more distillers grains (DDGS), the by-product of ethanol production. When the amount of corn used for ethanol feed co-products is combined with feed and residual demand, total feed demand becomes 6.35 billion bushels, or 47 percent of expected use in 2011/12.

Distillers Grains, Ethanol, Ethanol News, USDA

Ethanol to be Focus of NPR Program Tuesday

Cindy Zimmerman

A popular syndicated National Public Radio program Tuesday will focus on the perceived decline in political support for America’s ethanol industry and where the industry will go from here.

Renewable Fuels Association
President and CEO Bob Dinneen will be featured on The Diane Rehm Show, which is carried live on NPR stations and originates at WAMU 88.5 in Washington, DC. Dinneen will be joined on the program starting at 11:00 am Eastern by veteran Reuters agriculture correspondent Chuck Abbott and the Environmental Working Group’s Sheila Karpf.

Listen to the program live on local public radio affiliates or on the show website TheDianeRehmShow.org by clicking “Listen to WAMU” in the upper right hand corner. The number to call in and ask questions during the show is 800-433-8850.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, RFA

Navy Announces Unmanned Flight On Biofuel

Cindy Zimmerman

The Navy has reached a milestone in the quest to gain energy independence with the first unmanned biofueled flight of an MQ-8B Fire Scout at Webster Field in St. Inigoes, Md. The unmanned helicopter was fueled with a combination of JP-5 aviation fuel and plant-based camelina.

The MQ-8B Fire Scout Vertical Take-Off and Landing Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle provides critical situational awareness, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and targeting data to the forward deployed warfighter. Fire Scout is designed to operate from all air capable ships and is currently providing ISR support during its first-land based deployment in U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

Fire Scout is the seventh aircraft to demonstrate the versatility of biofuel through its use in all facets of naval aviation. The completion of aircraft biofuel testing at Pax River is another example of the Navy’s determination in achieving its goal of launching the “Great Green Fleet.”

Watch the YouTube video of the successful biofueled UAV flight here:

advanced biofuels, Government

BIO Encourages Commercializing Advanced Biofuels for Military

Cindy Zimmerman

BIOAdvanced biofuels can be commercialized rapidly for military use, on military timelines, with adequate support and coordination of efforts by the U.S. Departments of Agriculture, Defense and Energy, according to comments submitted by the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) to the Air Force’s Request for Information on the commercial status and market for advanced drop-in biofuels.

“The U.S. military and the nation as a whole face a significant national security threat from U.S. dependence on foreign sources of energy and ongoing price volatility. The military requires access to adequate fuel supplies in strategic locations, and biorefineries producing advanced biofuels from multiple feedstocks represent perhaps the best option for meeting this military need,” said Brent Erickson, executive vice president of BIO’s Industrial & Environmental Section.

Erickson noted that while individual advanced biofuel producers have achieved milestones toward commercial development of a diverse array of feedstock and technology combinations, full commercialization has been limited by the severely constrained market for private capital. “Coordination of efforts by the USDA, DOE and DOD to address the market challenges could significantly accelerate production of the volumes necessary to meet the energy security needs of the U.S. military,” Erickson said. “Some advanced biofuel companies already have worked with the Department of Defense (DOD) or with commercial airlines to test and certify advanced biofuel/petroleum blends, and more are poised to do so.”

advanced biofuels, BIO, biofuels, biojet fuel

Farm Foundation Hosts Renewable Energy Webinar

Cindy Zimmerman

The use of anaerobic digesters for livestock operations in the Southwest is the focus of the Renewable Energy Education Field Day webinar planned for later this month.

The webinar will be presented on Wednesday October 26 and will examine technical, environmental and financial factors to consider when installing an anaerobic digester on a livestock operation and specifically the use of digesters with dry manure and the unique environmental issues and climatic conditions of the Southwest.

The virtual Field Day is free of charge and targeted to dairy and beef producers in New Mexico, Arizona, California, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Representatives of environmental and agricultural organizations working with livestock producers, as well as staff from state and federal agencies, are also encouraged to participate.

farmfoundationlogo3The webinar’s origination site will be the New Mexico Farm and Ranch Heritage Museum, Las Cruces, N.M., where anyone interested in the area is invited to attend live. Five viewing sites have been set up across the Southwest at Lamar Community College, Lamar, Colo.; Otero County Extension Office, Rocky Ford, Colo.; Arizona State University, Polytechnic Campus, Mesa, Ariz.; the U.S. EPA Region 9 Office, San Francisco, Calif.; and the Texas A&M’s AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Amarillo, Texas. Additional sites may be added.

Farm Foundation, NFP is organizing this webinar in collaboration with USDA Rural Development, USDA’s Office of Energy Policy and New Uses, and USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service. There is no charge to participate in this webinar, but registration is required by going to the FarmFoundation.org website. This is the second Renewable Energy Education Field Day presented by Farm Foundation, NFP and USDA agencies. Biomass was the subject of the first Field Day in November 2010.

biodigester, biogas, biomethane, dairy, Energy, Farm Foundation, Webinar

Southeast Partnership Formed for Biomass Development

Cindy Zimmerman

Development of biomass for energy in the southeast was also included in the USDA grants announced this week in the Pacific Northwest.

Among the grants is $15 million for research to be led by the University of Tennessee to develop sustainable feedstock production systems using switchgrass and woody biomass that will “produce low-cost, easily converted sugars for biochemical conversion to butanol, lignin byproducts and forest and mill residues, and dedicated energy crop feedstocks to produce diesel, heat and power.” Created to implement the research project is the Southeast Partnership for Integrated Biomass Supply Systems (IBSS) and one of the core partners of that group is ArborGen, a South Carolina-based company that specializes in the development and commercialization of technologies that improve the productivity of trees for wood, fiber and energy.

According to ArborGen officials, the company’s expertise will be utilized to explore the performance and cost advantages of short-rotation woody crops such as Eucalyptus, Pine and Poplar, matching the economic and environmental performance of each feedstock with a preferred conversion platform.

ArborGen’s focus in the IBSS partnership will be on optimizing wood characteristics for optimal conversion to advanced “drop in” biofuels and on developing sustainable methods for harvesting, transporting and storing purpose grown trees. ArborGen will also work closely with IBSS on ensuring that technology developed at IBSS will benefit rural economies. A key component of the IBSS partnership will be to ensure that information is developed to help land owners, rural communities and the emerging biofuels industry make decisions that promote sustainable development.

advanced biofuels, biomass, Research, USDA

SunPower Opens Biodiesel Fueling Station in Duluth

Cindy Zimmerman

SunPower Biodiesel has announced the opening of their first biodiesel fueling station in Minnesota.

The company’s original prototype FuelMaster® biodiesel station is located at SunPower’s production facility, based in Cumberland, Wisconsin. The newest addition is located in Duluth, MN and offers B99 (99% biodiesel and 1% petroleum diesel, the first station in Northern Minnesota to offer a B99 blend.

Jamie Helgeson of SunPower says they are excited to share the benefits of SunPower Premium Cold Flow Biodiesel with Northern Minnesota. “You can expect cooler running engines, ten times the lubrication of regular diesel, higher cetane and longer engine and parts life.”

According to the company, as the temperatures get colder, SunPower adapts by offering a winter blend of biodiesel, which also contains a fuel additive and has been tested to operate down to -30°F. SunPower Biodiesel, LLC produces premium cold flow biodiesel made mostly of canola, which maintains many of its cold flow properties when converted into biodiesel.

Biodiesel