Study Says Gas Prices Would be Higher Without Ethanol

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Buc-ee’s gas pump in Arizona Labor Day weekend

Nationwide regular gasoline prices over Labor Day weekend 2026 set a new holiday record and crossed $4 per gallon for the first time on Labor Day, but they would be higher if not for ethanol, according to a new study just completed for the Renewable Fuels Association. Prepared by George Hoekstra, a 35-year veteran of the petroleum refining industry, the study concludes that the average E10 cost-savings advantage has been 38 cents per gallon since the war in Iran started at the end of February.

The Hoekstra report shows that E15’s economic benefit during the Iran conflict has been even greater, offering a lower cost of 57 cents per gallon. The study looks at three economically distinct sources of ethanol value: The value of replacing gasoline volume with lower-cost ethanol, the octane value of ethanol, and the value of Renewable Fuel Standard compliance credits called RINs. However, even when one leaves out the impact of RFS blending obligations and RINs, E10 still offered a 17.5 cents per gallon cost advantage compared to regular gasoline, showing that ethanol has substantial economic value even before counting the RIN credit value. Hoekstra also estimates that for the full year through early August, the non-RIN portion equated to overall savings of $18.7 billion.

RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper says American-made ethanol is extending domestic fuel supplies by more than 1 million barrels per day and significantly lowering prices at the pump for consumers. “This report should serve as a compelling reminder to policymakers that the fastest way to lower fuel prices is to blend more—not less—ethanol into our gasoline,” said Cooper. “The findings underscore the urgent need for Congress to pass legislation allowing nationwide, year-round E15 as quickly as possible.”

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Bayer and Neste to Scale Canola for Biofuels

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Bayer has joined forces with Neste, a leading producer of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, to jointly scale Bayer’s newgold® winter canola for biofuels production.

The collaboration will enable Bayer to significantly expand acres of winter canola in the Southern Great Plains of the US, strengthening the oilseed supply potential of lower-carbon-intensity feedstocks to meet the growing global demand for biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, which is estimated to increase almost threefold reaching approximately 40 billion gallons by 2040.1,2 The high protein meal from the winter canola grain will be sold into the feed market, offering additional feed sources for dairy and beef cattle, poultry and swine markets.

“In times of geopolitical tensions, the need for more energy security and resilience while decarbonizing the transportation sector leads to growing demand for renewable fuel. This agreement further underscores Bayer’s commitment to help scale biofuels production,” said Frank Terhorst, Head of Strategy and Sustainability for Bayer’s Crop Science division. “We see the Southern Great Plains as an untapped opportunity for winter canola. The launch of newgold® winter canola will provide farmers with a profitable rotational crop with wheat and improve land utilization, while offering the opportunity to participate in a growing biofuels market.”

Bayer and Neste are establishing a newgold® network with additional value chain partners, to support the expansion of winter canola and ensure an additional market for farmers.

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IRS Releases 45Z Tax Credit Guidance

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The Internal Revenue Service this week issued long-awaited guidance on the Section 45Z Clean Fuels Production Tax Credit.

The guidance includes the technical modeling updates to the 45ZCF-GREET model used to determine emissions rates required under the Working Families Tax Cuts (WFTC) amended and extended section 45Z and implements additional changes including addressing how the annual emissions rate tables work and which table and models a producer should use to determine the emissions rate of a particular fuel.

National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower says the guidance will give safe harbor to previously recognized “on farm” practices in reducing the carbon intensity of qualifying fuels. “This guidance also codifies positive changes to the credit regarding indirect land use change. We look forward to working with the Treasury Department this fall as it looks to issue a final rule by November. NCGA would also like to see ‘book and claim’ acknowledged as a viable chain of custody methodology in the final rule.” Book and claim allows farmers to sell the environmental value of their low-carbon corn directly to biofuel producers digitally, eliminating the need to physically segregate and transport those crops to a specific facility.

Rebecca Johnson, Christianson PLLP, (right) at the recent ACE Conference

Biofuel producers and farmers have been working to prepare for the 45Z tax credit since 2022 when it was first created by the Inflation Reduction Act, then changed under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year. The tax credit was a big topic at the recent ACE Annual Conference where CPA Rebecca Johnson of Christianson PLLP talked about how they have been working with producers to help them prepare.

“Documentation is going to be the key,” said Johnson. “So farmers have to do things from keeping receipts or keeping packaging from fertilizer to getting geo-coordinates to getting pictures of the fields, what they looked like to prove that they didn’t do things like no-till. And it’s definitely a lot that they haven’t had to do in the past. And so just education and making sure they’re ready to go is going to be key.”

Learn more in this interview:
Rebecca Johnson, Christianson PLLP 4:10

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E15 Could be Iowa’s Top-Selling Fuel in 2026

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The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association is projecting that E15 will top E10 to be the number one fuel in Iowa by the end of this year.

“It will be close, but E15 is on track to become Iowa’s top-selling fuel for 2026,” said Iowa Renewable Fuels Association Executive Director Monte Shaw. “With 46 million gallons in August, Iowa drivers are sending a clear message: they want E15. As more Iowa retailers have given drivers the chance to buy E15, the numbers are impossible to ignore.”

According to the latest monthly fuel tax data released by the Iowa Department of Revenue, Iowa fuel terminals distributed more than 46 million gallons of E15 during August, the second highest amount on record and total E15 sales in the state for August were just behind the record 48 million gallons sold in May, continuing a strong year of growth for the ethanol blend.

E15, Ethanol, Ethanol News

Ethanol Exports Still on Track for Record Year

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Ethanol exports were lower in July but remain on target to score another record year.

According to the Renewable Fuels Association’s latest Trade Monitor, U.S. ethanol exports were down three percent in July, but the total for the year through July is 1.41 billion gallons, running 13% ahead of the same period last year.

Canada remained the leading destination for U.S. ethanol, despite shipments declining by five percent in July. Exports to the European Union dropped 18% to 50.4 mg, with most shipments entering through the Netherlands. Exports to Vietnam expanded sixfold to a record-high of 18.6 mg. Exports to the United Kingdom declined 14% to 12.8 mg.

The export year actually ended August 31, and when the receipts are finally counted, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper says he expects U.S. ethanol exports to exceed last year’s record of 2.2 billion gallons. “We are expecting to eclipse that. We’re looking at probably 2.4 billion gallons of ethanol exports this year. So exports are booming,” he said in an interview last week at Farm Progress Show.

July exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS) were effectively unchanged from June at 1.10 million metric tons (mt), and totaled 7.27 million mt for the year, 13% above the same period in 2025. Cooper says increasing that export market has been a key goal of the biennial Export Exchange, which will be held this year October 15-17 in Seattle. “The purpose of the event is to provide education and information and data about the co-products that are being produced in the ethanol industry to potential customers and existing customers of those co-products,” said Cooper. “About one out of every three tons of distillers grains that we produce today is being exported. So that education process remains very important.”

Read the RFA Trade Monitor.

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Ethanol Report from the 2026 Farm Progress Show

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The 2026 Farm Progress Show kicked off September 1 in Boone, Iowa with breaking news for the ethanol industry. On Monday, the Environmental Protection Agency announced new small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year, along with a plan to reallocate the lost volume. And second, breaking in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, California lawmakers passed a fix to hopefully allow sales of E15 to finally happen in the state.

Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper, along with Robert White, Senior VP of Industry Relations & Market Development, were at the show to talk with farmers and the media about those two developments and what they mean for the industry and agriculture. This edition of The Ethanol Report includes their comments, as well as part of Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ remarks at Farm Progress Show.

Ethanol Report 9-4-26 12:21

The Ethanol Report is a podcast about the latest news and information in the ethanol industry that has been sponsored by the Renewable Fuels Association since 2008.

Choose an option to subscribe

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Ethanol’s Share of U.S. Gasoline is Record High

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With gas prices averaging over $4 a gallon, millions of Americans expected to hit the highways this Labor Day weekend, and many of them will be choosing less expensive, higher ethanol blends where they are available.

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data reviewed by the Renewable Fuels Association, the average ethanol content of gasoline sold in the U.S. surpassed 11 percent for the second consecutive month in June, and the 12-month average blend rate hit a new record of 10.58 percent.

While the majority of the gasoline sold in the U.S. contains 10 percent ethanol (E10), the new EIA data shows that sales of mid-level blends like E15 and flex fuels like E85 have accelerated this year. Ethanol has been priced at a discount of $1 per gallon or more to gasoline blendstock at the wholesale level, and Renewable Fuel Standard RIN credits have provided additional value.

“Ethanol’s blending economics have been compelling this spring and summer, and consumers and fuel suppliers have clearly responded,” said RFA Chief Economist Scott Richman. “The response would have been even greater if legislation permanently allowing year-round sales of E15 had already been enacted. The additional volume would have helped hold down prices at the pump even more, at a time when U.S. fuel supplies have tightened and oil refineries have been running near full capacity.”

In an RFA Perspective last month, Richman noted how a significant increase in ethanol consumption would be expected to result in a substantial easing of prices of RIN associated with ethanol. “Refiners who have complained about high RIN prices should welcome this prospect,” he wrote.

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RFA Connects with Farmers at Farm Progress Show

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RFA at the Farm Progress Show

The Renewable Fuels Association has been connecting with farmers at the 2026 Farm Progress Show this week in Boone, Iowa.

“This is one of our favorite events of the year because it really gives us a chance to put our finger on the pulse of what farmers are talking about,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “We have some amazing conversations with farmers who come up and kind of tell us about what’s happening on their operations and the things that are keeping them up at night, answer a lot of their questions about what’s happening in the ethanol world and with policy and regulatory developments. But more than anything, it’s just a good way for us to make sure we’re connecting every year with farmers, who of course are tremendously important to what we do in the ethanol industry.”

Cooper says the farm economy is suffering right now, but ethanol continues to be a bright spot and farmers know it. “There was farming before ethanol and there’s been farming after ethanol and the two could not be more different,” said Cooper. “It has just been such a boon to these rural economies, these farming economies. It has helped to add value to commodities. It’s helped create jobs in these communities. It’s helped create new economic activity. in these communities across the country and farmers get that. They know that. They come up to our booth and tell us, thank you. Thank you guys for doing what you’re doing because ethanol has really saved the farm economy.”

To help the situation in farm country now, Cooper says we need the next new wave for ethanol. “And that next wave needs to be nationwide, year-round E15, continuing to grow our export demand, getting into new markets like maritime fuel and aviation, and just continuing to build and expand those markets,” he said. “Year-round E15 alone, if we were able to replace E10 nationwide, if every gallon of gasoline was E15, that’s another 6 billion gallons of ethanol demand…about 2.5 billion bushels of new corn demand.”

In this interview from Farm Progress Show, Cooper comments on EPA’s granting new small refinery waivers, California E15, record ethanol exports, and more.
FPS26 Geoff Cooper, RFA 13:17

2026 Farm Progress Show photo album

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Hormel Institute Update on Ethanol’s Role in Reducing Cancer

Cindy Zimmerman

Gail Dennison speaks as Dr. Luke Hoeppner looks on at the ACE Conference

There is growing evidence that ethanol in gasoline can play a role in reducing the cancer risk of fuel additives.

At the recent American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) annual conference in Minneapolis, Gail Dennison and Dr. Luke Hoeppner of the University of Minnesota’s Hormel Institute outlined the latest research linking fossil-fuel BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes) to higher cancer risk and other disease, and the potential health advantage of replacing them with ethanol.

Dennison described how the project began after industry leaders asked whether ethanol could serve as a less carcinogenic alternative in fuels. Early work, she said, showed BTEX mixtures to be more hazardous than anticipated. Exposure has been tied not only to lung, breast and prostate cancers but also to generational breast-cancer risk after prenatal exposure and to neurodegenerative conditions, including Alzheimer’s, through disruption of the gut microbiome. “We’re on the quest now of completing and taking the research to the next stages,” said Dennison. “We know you need published data. And so that is our number one goal.”

Hoeppner, a cancer researcher who joined the institute from Mayo Clinic, presented laboratory and animal data on lung cancer. In custom inhalation chambers built at the University of Minnesota, mice that breathed BTEX developed more and larger lung tumors in both carcinogen-induced and genetically driven models. A zebrafish assay further indicated that BTEX accelerates a key step in metastasis: cancer cells leaving the bloodstream. Parallel mouse metastasis studies are under way. “And we’re currently performing studies and optimizing a technique that we can deliver ethanol to the mice as a control to show that ethanol is likely not having these effects, whereas the BTEX is,” said Hoeppner.

The institute has co-funded the work and multiple papers are in preparation. Dennison noted growing interest from officials in California and Mexico City, where ethanol use remains low. A planned next phase will use mice carrying random mutations to identify which genes make individuals most susceptible to BTEX-driven lung cancer.

Learn more in their presentation at The ACE.

Gail Dennison, The Hormel Institute, Director of Development & External Relations
Luke Hoeppner, The Hormel Institute, University of Minnesota, Associate Professor
Hormel Institute Panel 22:13

2026 ACE Conference photo album

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RFA Adds New Director of Global Policy and Regulatory Affairs

Cindy Zimmerman

Jeff Dwyer

The Renewable Fuels Association welcomes U.S. Department of Agriculture veteran Jeff Dwyer as Director of Global Policy and Regulatory Affairs in the Washington office.

“With his background in trade, ag policy and economics, Jeff will be a terrific addition to our association,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “He has demonstrated the expertise to hit the ground running, to advance our policy priorities and serve our members as we work to enhance the growth and competitiveness of the U.S. ethanol industry.”

“I’m thrilled to join RFA at a time when our industry has significant opportunities to grow both at home and around the world,” Dwyer said. “I look forward to bringing my experience in agricultural trade and economic policy to RFA and working with its members to expand global markets, develop new uses for renewable fuels and navigate an evolving carbon and environmental policy landscape.”

Dwyer spent eight years at USDA, most recently serving as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. He also served USDA as an agricultural economist and international trade economist with the Foreign Agricultural Service. Prior to his service with USDA, Dwyer worked as an agribusiness consultant with Informa Economics, conducting economic, market, and trade policy analysis for agricultural commodity groups, agribusinesses, and trade associations. He holds a Master of Science in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics and a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from The Ohio State University.

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