ACE Conference 2026

What Will We Drive in 2023?

Joanna Schroeder

According to a new study, “Tomorrow’s Vehicles: What Will We Drive in 2023?” released by the Fuels Institute, the growth of vehicles running on alternative fuels will accelerate over the next decade but diesel-fuel and gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the market.

Tomorrow's Vehicles What Will We Drive in 2023For light-duty vehicles (passenger vehicles and light trucks), gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the market, although overall market share could decline from 93 percent in 2012 to as low as 82 percent of vehicle inventories in 2023. Diesel-powered vehicles will potentially comprise nearly 7 percent of the market while flexible-fuel vehicles capable of using E85 could grow to more than 9 percent of the market.

Meanwhile, for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (commercial vehicles like trucks and buses), diesel-powered vehicles will prevail, representing at least 94 percent of the vehicle fleet in 2023.

“On the surface, it may not seem that significant change is occurring, because gasoline and diesel fuel-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the vehicle fleet in 2023, but alternatives are gaining traction,” said John Eichberger, executive director of the Fuels Institute. “Consumers appear to be more open to alternatives than ever before and vehicle manufacturers are offering a wider variety.”

Given that there are more than 250 million vehicles on the road today, the report finds it will take years of strong sales of alternative fuel vehicles to reshape the country’s vehicle fleet. In addition, a variety of developments — including cost reductions for alternative-fuel vehicles, conveniently available refueling options, expanded vehicle range and overall consumer familiarity and confidence with new fueling options — will need to occur before alternative-fueled vehicles can capture significant market share.

“We need to ask — and answer — some tough questions so that the vehicles and fueling markets can develop together and convert consumers to new type of vehicles,” said Eichberger.

The report forecast the makeup of the vehicle fleet in 2023 based on two scenarios: a “base case” that incorporates current forecasts and an “aggressive case” that assumes more robust world economic conditions that further spurs demand and prices for petroleum products. In both projections, gasoline-powered vehicles will continue to dominate the LDV market but lose significant market share, dropping from 93.2 percent of LDVs on the road in 2012 to between 82.6 percent to 86.0 percent in 2023. This decline in market share is driven by a shift in the sale of new vehicles, with gasoline-powered vehicles’ share of sales falling from 83.4 percent in 2012 to between 67.6 percent to 78.9 percent in 2023, a potentially dramatic change in consumer purchasing behavior.Read More

Alternative Vehicles, Electric Vehicles, Research

Ethanol By-Product as Biodegradable Kitty Litter

John Davis

usda-logoResearchers at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) have found a way to turn a by-product of ethanol production into a biodegradable form of kitty litter. This news release from the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) says USDA plant physiologist Steven Vaughn and his colleagues are using dried distiller’s grains, DDGs, as a starting material for a more environmentally friendly alternative to nonbiodegradable clay-based litters.

In preliminary studies, Vaughn’s group tested “x-DDGs.” These are DDGs that, after being used for ethanol production, are treated with one or more solvents to extract any remaining, potentially useful natural compounds.

The team’s laboratory experiments yielded a suggested formulation composed of the x-DDGs and three other compounds: glycerol, to prevent the litter from forming dust particles when poured or pawed; guar gum, to help the litter clump easily when wet; and a very small amount of copper sulfate, for odor control.

The resulting litter is highly absorbent, forms strong clumps that don’t crumble when scooped from the litter box, and provides significant odor control, according to Vaughn. He’s based at the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) National Center for Agricultural Utilization Research in Peoria, Ill. ARS is USDA’s chief intramural scientific research agency.

This isn’t the first time corn or grains have been looked at to use for environmentally friendly cat litter. But this is the first time DDGs have been thoroughly examined for this purpose.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, Government, USDA

Today in Energy Looks at RFS

Joanna Schroeder

A recent Today in Energy published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reviewed the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed rule for the 2014 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The RFS program, established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and later expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA07), requires EPA to set annual requirements for the renewable content of liquid fuels that may differ from a set of targets specified by law.

2014 proposed RFSThe U.S. Energy Information Administration is required by the RFS provisions in EISA07 to provide EPA with information related to the projected use of motor gasoline and diesel fuel and the supply of various categories of biofuels in the month prior to issuance of EPA’s final RFS rulemaking for each program year.

While EPA has set requirements for cellulosic biofuels well below the legislated volume targets for such fuels in past RFS program years, the proposed rule for the 2014 RFS program is the first time that the agency is seeking to set the total renewable fuel and advanced biofuel requirements below the legislated targets.

According to This Week in Petroleum, the pool of gasoline available for ethanol blending is significantly smaller than it was projected to be before enactment of EISA07, which in addition to updating RFS program requirements also mandated significant increases in vehicle fuel economy standards. The total demand for gasoline has been flat or decreasing since 2007 because of greenhouse gas and fuel economy standards for vehicles, fuel prices, and a sharp economic downturn followed by a slow recovery. In summer 2006, when the reference case for EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007) was developed, the projected 2014 total gasoline energy demand (including ethanol) was 153.9 billion gallons. This gasoline pool could have absorbed 15.4 billion gallons of ethanol if all gasoline was E10. By summer 2012, when the AEO2013 reference case was developed, the comparable estimated total gasoline energy demand was 131.9 billion gallons. This gasoline pool could absorb 13.1 billion gallons ethanol if all gasoline was E10.

The forecast of 2014 motor fuel use that EIA will provide to EPA for use in translating the RFS requirements it decides upon into renewable volume obligation percentages for obligated parties twip131120fig2-lgunder the RFS program will be based on the latest available STEO forecast at the time EIA provides its input. The November 2013 STEO projects gasoline energy demand of 133.2 billion in 2014, including 13.35 billion gallons of ethanol by volume. This estimate is about 1.0% higher than the AEO2013 reference case projection for 2014. The November 2013 STEO projects petroleum diesel consumption of 55.3 billion gallons in 2014.

Forecasts of motor fuels use over the coming year generally move with the outlook for economic conditions, prices, and any changes in regulations. However, as noted in EIA’s May 2013 letter to EPA providing input in advance of the 2013 RFS final rule, forecasting cellulosic ethanol supply can be quite challenging. While cellulosic biofuel production estimates are subject to much smaller absolute uncertainty than production or consumption estimates for other transportation fuels, the percentage uncertainty surrounding forecasts of cellulosic fuels is very large. This reflects both the very low volume of total cellulosic biofuel production and the very small number of facilities that have begun to enter into service. Small changes in the startup date or projected utilization rate at just one facility can therefore have a large effect on the total amount of cellulosic biofuel production that is achieved. This is different from many other EIA production forecasts where production occurs from a very large number of plants, which allows for averaging of outage rates at individual facilities, and for which start-up of a new facility has very little impact on the total production.

An additional challenge for forecasts of cellulosic supply during 2014 is that EPA is currently considering the approval of several new pathways (the combination of feedstocks and conversion methodology) for fuels that could affect the availability of certain types of biofuels. As it prepares to provide its input to EPA ahead of the final RFS rule for 2014, EIA will be carefully watching for new information regarding the situation with respect to individual facilities and possible action by EPA regarding new pathways over the coming months.

advanced biofuels, biofuels, Cellulosic, RFS

EPA to Hold Hearing on RFS Proposal

Cindy Zimmerman

epaThe Environmental Protection Agency has scheduled a public hearing on its proposal to lower the volume obligations under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2014. According to a notice in the Federal Register, the hearing will be held December 5 at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City in Arlington, Virginia.

The event will begin at 9:00 in the morning and “end when all parties present who wish to speak have had the opportunity to do so.” Those wishing to testify are advised contact Julia MacAllister of the EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality by Nov. 26.

According to the notice, the public hearing will “provide a means for interested parties to present data, views or arguments” concerning the proposal, which EPA announced on November 15. Comments will also be accepted in written form for 60 days once the proposed rule is published in the Federal Register, which has not yet been done.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, Government, RFS

E15 Now Available in Cedar Falls/Waterloo, IA

Joanna Schroeder

ECI has announced it has begun selling registered E15 to motorists who drive a 2001 or newer vehicle. ECI is located near Waterloo at 1144 Hwy 63 North in Hudson, Iowa. E15, a blend of gasoline and 15 percent ethanol, can be used by all 2001 and newer passenger vehicles, which account for about 85 percent of fuel use in the United States. In order to offer E15, a retailer must register with the EPA.

E15 sign“Offering E15 as a registered fuel gives ECI a leg up on our competition by being the only E15 retailer in the Cedar Falls/Waterloo-area to offer this low-cost fuel alternative,” stated ECI Energy Division Manager Terry Grant. “After reviewing the economics, offering E15 makes sense for our business and our customers.”

ECI had assistance with the process of offering E15 from the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA). “The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) congratulates ECI on being Iowa’s tenth retailer to include E15 as one of its renewable fuel options,” said IRFA Managing Director Lucy Norton. “Iowa is fast becoming the country’s E15 capitol proving that EPA’s proposal to lower RFS levels for 2014 is misguided and totally unnecessary. This will be proven as more Iowa retail stations begin offering E15 over the next few days.”

IRFA assists retailers in the registration process to ensure they comply with all applicable federal and state E15 regulations.

E15, Ethanol, Iowa RFA, Renewable Energy

BioEnergy Bytes

Joanna Schroeder

  • BioEnergyBytesDFThe University of Colorado will be offering two of its core graduate energy courses online this spring: RSEI 5000 ‘Energy Science and Technology’ and RSEI 5002 ‘The Business of Sustainable Energy.’ Both courses are full-semester, for-credit courses; taught by our regular faculty. These courses provide an in-depth understanding of the renewable and sustainable energy industry. These courses will help you build or advance your career in this growing field. Click here to find more information about these courses, and about our Professional Certificate in Renewable and Sustainable Energy.
  • Building on the success of the previous European Biomass to Power conferences in Vienna, London & Krakow, ACI has confirmed the location and dates for the 2014 event as Copenhagen, Denmark, on April 1-2, 2014. In addition, DONG Energy is hosting a site visit to their Avedore Power Station. Click here for the agenda and more information on the event.
  • The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) praised a new rule approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) that will expedite and reduce the cost of solar project interconnection, while maintaining the reliability and safety of the electric grid. In 2005, FERC issued Order No. 2006, which for the first time established national interconnection procedures applicable to generation projects that are 20 megawatts (MW) or less in size and subject to FERC’s wholesale jurisdiction. The rule approved today will allow solar projects that meet certain technical requirements to qualify for a “fast track” interconnection process, thus eliminating the need for costly and time-consuming studies. Rhone Resch, president and CEO of SEIA, said today’s decision will help to reduce interconnection bottlenecks.
  • 8minutenergy Renewables, LLC and saferay, Inc. have announced the signing of a 20-year contract to sell 15 megawatts-ac (19.7MW-dc) of clean, renewable solar energy from their Woodmere Solar Farm project in Kern County, Calif., to Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E). The Woodmere Solar Farm project is a utility-scale solar generation facility sited on 80 acres of low-productivity farmland. Construction is projected to begin in 2014, with the site expected to be operational and delivering renewable energy by December 2015.
Bioenergy Bytes

IA Gov Branstad & RFS Coalition Defend RFS

Joanna Schroeder

20131122_133747Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, Senator Chuck Grassley, Representative Steve King, and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey joined the Iowa RFS Coalition and more than 300 Iowans to urge the Obama Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to restore strong blending levels for 2014 under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The “Defend the RFS” event was held at Lincolnway Energy near Nevada, Iowa exactly one week after the EPA unveiled a proposal that would gut the RFS and jeopardize rural economies.

“The EPA proposal for 2014 guts the RFS which would lead to higher gasoline prices and lower farm income,” said Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) Executive Director Monte Shaw. “The Obama Administration fell for Big Oil’s bluff, but there’s still time to defend the RFS. All Iowans need to step up and let the EPA know this proposal cannot stand. The Obama Administration should not turn its back on Iowa farmers and rural America.”

Iowans were urged to defend the RFS and protect the rural economy by sending an official comment to the EPA. In addition to creating an extra-legal waiver mechanism, the EPA proposal lowers the “corn ethanol” level from 13.8 billion gallons in 2013 to only 13 billion gallons in 2014. The proposal also freezes the biodiesel level at 1.28 billion gallons despite the fact the biodiesel industry is currently operating at an annualized rate of 2 billion gallons.

Lincolnway Energy CEO Eric Hakmiller kicked off the event by noting, “Every member of the Iowa Congressional delegation wanted to be here. While scheduling conflicts prevented some from attending in person, they are all here in spirit. When the EPA unveiled the RFS proposal one week ago, the Iowa Congressional delegation spoke with one voice, regardless of party, and said, ‘this must not stand!’”

Iowa is the largest biofuels producer in the country with 42 ethanol refineries capable of producing over 3.8 billion gallons annually, with three cellulosic ethanol facilities currently under construction. In addition, Iowa has 12 biodiesel facilities with the capacity to produce nearly 315 million gallons annually. A fall of the biodiesel industry would be catastrophic for the state’s economy and rural companies.

20131122_131125Iowa Governor Terry Branstad told the crowd, “As the leading agriculture state in the nation, we know how important agriculture and renewable fuels are to the economic vitality and future in Iowa. We want good jobs in our state, and we want agribusiness and our communities to thrive. We need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and we need to continue to provide American-made renewable fuels to consumers. We all need to stand together in opposition to this EPA proposal. We cannot forget that over 44,000 jobs are in jeopardy based on one proposal by the EPA, and we must work together to protect these jobs.”

“The federal government made a commitment to renewable energy, and the EPA is undermining the commitment,” said Senator Chuck Grassley.  All of us who support homegrown, clean-burning energy and forward-thinking energy policy need to speak out and let the Administration know that its proposal is short-sighted and irresponsible.”

Representative Steve King said in his remarks, “The RFS is the only tool that provides market access so that ethanol and other renewable fuels can be sold in competition with petroleum.  It is disappointing the EPA has decided to lower RFS numbers and make the United States more dependent on foreign sources of energy when we have the means to produce cleaner, greener fuels right here in America.”

Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey reminded the crowd, “Ethanol and biodiesel have been tremendous success stories that have benefited consumers, farmers, the economy and the environment and it is unfortunate the EPA is trying to undermine this important industry.  It is vital we stand up for these home-grown fuels and share our opposition to this proposal with the Administration.”Read More

Biodiesel, biofuels, Iowa RFA, RFS

Argentine, Indonesian Biodiesel Hit with EU Duties

John Davis

inareuflagsBiodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia are now subject to punitive duties imposed by the European Union. Reuters reports they were hit with the measures after the EU ruled that producers there were selling into the bloc at unfairly low prices.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, said in a statement on Thursday the duties would be set at an average of 24.6 percent for biodiesel from Argentina and 18.9 percent from Indonesia, confirming earlier Reuters reports.

The duties will come into effect on November 27.

EU member states voted in favour of a Commission view that Argentine and Indonesian producers dumped their products to the detriment of European manufacturers.

The Commission said Argentine and Indonesian companies benefited from artificially low raw material prices because of high export taxes imposed on soya beans and soybean oil by Argentina and on palm oil by Indonesia.

Argentina is the world’s biggest biodiesel exporter, and the two countries represent 90 percent of EU biodiesel imports. Their share of the EU market rose to 22 percent in 2011 from 9 percent in 2009.

The companies set to be hit by the duties on exports from Argentina include agribusinesses Bunge Ltd and Louis Dreyfus Commodities, which face duties of 217 euros ($290) and 239 euros ($320) per tonne, respectively, according to a document seen by Reuters.

Argentina will be challenging the duties in front of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to go with its challenge that’s keeping biodiesel from reaching Europe. Indonesia is also likely to appeal the duties.

Biodiesel, International

Opinion: Biodiesel’s Biggest Foe? US Government

John Davis

KotrbaSo if you’re considering biodiesel opponents, you might think of the usual suspects led by Big Oil. But according to this piece by Ron Kotrba from Biodiesel Magazine, if you look at the history of the opposition, especially what has happened in the past week, the biggest roadblock to biodiesel could be the current U.S. government.

Then [Environmental Protection Agency]’s draft proposal was leaked in October, in which the agency proposed stalling the biomass-based diesel standard at 1.28 billion gallons and reducing the advanced biofuel target from the statutory requirement of 3.75 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons to 2.2 billion, and industry stakeholders wondered, could it be? Is this real? It didn’t make any sense. Some suggested the document was a fraud. Others suggested it was an old draft, perhaps not reflective of what EPA will actually propose. Others yet even speculated that EPA is intentionally attempting to squeeze out the small producers to simplify RIN tracking and accounting.

When the actual proposal came out last Friday, and it mirrored what the leaked draft indicated, you could literally feel the frustration and angst pour out of producers. I contacted several plants and stakeholders, and some of the things that were relayed to me were not fit for print, expressions that were wholly legitimate and understandable, but expletive. For industry reaction to the proposal, read my story here.

Isn’t it ironic that Big Oil’s own George W. Bush signs into law the legislation that sparks tremendous biodiesel industry growth, and the administration of Barrack Obama, the man who leveraged biodiesel so many times in his 2008 campaign, is attempting to crush it through this proposed RVO rule for 2014?

Kotrba encourages biodiesel producers and their allies not to play the victim, but send comments packed with facts to the EPA expressing their displeasure with the proposal. He concludes that there’s no good reason for this “backslide on biodiesel policy” when billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs, as well as a cleaner, more secure energy future are at stake

It isn’t right, and none of us should stand for it.

Biodiesel, Government, Opinion

Questions About EPA Authority for RFS Waiver

Cindy Zimmerman

coppessEven before the Environmental Protection Agency officially released its proposed 2014 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), questions arose about whether the EPA is overstepping its authority.

University of Illinois Clinical Assistant Professor of Law and Policy Jonathan Coppess, former counsel to the Senate Ag Committee and former administrator for USDA, says there is a legal argument to be made that EPA is stretching the definition of inadequate domestic supply in proposing a waiver based on the blend wall. “The entire intent of the statute was to increase production,” Coppess said during a media call today. “How does this unique or novel way of interpreting “domestic supply” fit with the intent Congress has for the overall statute?”

RFA-logo-13Coppess and Renewable Fuels Association President Bob Dinneen both stressed that no lawsuit has been filed against EPA’s proposal and they hope that will be unnecessary. “This is a proposal so there is no legal issue to litigate on,” said Dinneen. “We are hopeful that in the comment period, the agency … ultimately modifies the proposal to not include the blend wall in the waiver process.” Dinneen says they held the media call with Coppess to simply “tee up what the issues are” regarding the proposal.

Listen to or download the call with comments from Dinneen and Coppess here: RFA Call on EPA Authority for RFS Waiver

Also, check out our recent DF Cast featuring an interview with Coppess on the issue.

Audio, Ethanol, Ethanol News, RFA, RFS