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First it was the unprovable Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) theory. Now ethanol is being challenged by a new “what goes around comes around” hypothesis called the “Global Rebound Effect.”

Earlier this week, the Clean Air Task Force filed suit against the Environmental Protection Agency over the Renewable Fuel Standard for failing “to account for the “global rebound effect” when analyzing the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels.”

This theory goes on the assumption that, “By displacing some gasoline from the US market, the RFS reduces overall demand for petroleum, which in turn leads to lower prices, increased consumption, and higher greenhouse gas emissions in other countries. If EPA had considered the “global rebound effect” in its analysis of different biofuels, only a few of those fuels would have met Congress’s emissions reduction requirements.”

Using this theory, ANY action the United States might take to reduce gasoline consumption – from using more ethanol to increasing vehicle fuel efficiency – will result in INCREASED gasoline use elsewhere in the world. As Renewable Fuels Association president Bob Dinneen puts it, “Whatever environmentalist activists call this new theory, I call it nonsense.”

RFA is is challenging the lawsuit and the whole concept of Global Rebound Effect. “To penalize a technology, any technology, that reduces American oil consumption for any potential oil use in other nations is asinine,” said Dinneen. “Environmentalists are in favor of precious little these days, but by applying their new logic even efforts to improve efficiencies such as gas mileage must suffer a carbon penalty. It simply defies logic.”

That is indeed what the theory says, according to Steven Stoft, founder of the Global Economic Policy Center. In something he wrote last year called, “Corn Whiskey vs. the Climate,” Stoft said, “More ethanol use causes less oil to be imported, which causes a lower world “oil” price, which causes more liquid-fuel use worldwide. This same effect applies to conserving oil as well as to replacing it with ethanol, or even to pumping more oil from Alaska.”

RFA is also challenging the lawsuit claims that EPA is using overly optimistic assumptions about the nature of ethanol production in 2022, implicitly implying little improvement will occur in ethanol production technology between now and then. “To assume that no further innovation will occur in America’s ethanol industry is akin to believing the iPad is the final product from Apple,” said Dinneen.

The case, and RFA’s challenge to it, has been filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia.

Memorial Day is right around the bend and this weekend marks the start of summer driving. According to AAA, nearly 28 million Americans are expected to travel this weekend alone, a number curtailed due to environmental concerns as well as concerns caused by the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Yet there is good news for drivers as they are saving an average of $105 per year because of ethanol. This according to a report released today by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA).

The blending of ethanol into America’s fuel supply is saving consumers approximately 10 cents per gallon as compared to straight gasoline prices. According to RFA, at the wholesale level, ethanol has been selling at a 50-70 cent per gallon discount to gasoline before the 45 cent per gallon blender’s credit is taken into account. As a result, at a 10 percent ethanol blend (E10), the average American household is saving up to $105 per year.

“Domestic ethanol blends are a great bargain for consumers, saving them money at the pump while allowing them to support a truly American industry,” said RFA Vice President of Research Geoff Cooper. “Simply filling up with E10 instead of regular gasoline saves families money at a time when economic concerns and the Gulf of Mexico oil spill are front of mind. Ethanol is part of the solution to both concerns.”

On another front, as the grills get fired up, ethanol continues to be incorrectly blamed for higher prices of meat due to the claim from ethanol opponents that grain prices are higher. Yet the study shows that grain prices are not higher. In fact, corn prices are nearly 20 percent lower than one year ago and less than half of what they were during the oil-fueled speculative commodity bubble in the summer of 2008.

In a recent column, influential commodity analyst Rick Kment writing for DTN said, “Ethanol continues to be the whipping boy, but blaming the fuel for today’s higher meat prices just doesn’t add up. In the past four months live cattle futures have increased 25 percent while corn prices have fallen nearly 13 percent.”

Cooper on behalf of RFA added, “Finally, and most importantly, Memorial Day is a hallowed holiday in America when the nation pauses to remember those defending and those who have defended this nation. We pay special tribute to those individuals and families who made the ultimate sacrifice. The RFA wishes to extend its appreciation on behalf of everyone involved in America’s ethanol industry.”