A recasting of oil industry data from a recent NERA Economic Consulting study prepared for the American Petroleum Institute (API) found the oil industry would be economically harmed by more than $12.3 trillion in potential profits in 2015 if the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligations below statutory levels. The analysis, “Economic Impacts Resulting from Failing to Implement the RFS2 Program,” was conducted by the Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO), and finds the same result; however, views the information slightly differently.
“The Renewable Fuel Standard was designed to drive investment in renewable fuel production, and some oil companies have partnered with biofuel producers to do just that,” said Brent Erickson, executive vice president of BIO’s Industrial & Environmental Section. “Since many of the oil refiners are publicly owned companies, they have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders to maximize earnings and generate a return on that investment.”
Erickson continued, “The oil industry reported earnings of a paltry $77.2 billion for 2014, as prices at the pump fell during the year. But if EPA sets the RFS at the statutory volumes in 2015, the industry would be able to earn $12.3 trillion in profits this year by again raising the price of gasoline and diesel. The oil companies owe it to their shareholders to urge EPA to set RFS volumes at the statutory levels.”
According to BIO, the oil industry study from NERA Economic Consulting assumes that if EPA sets the RFS at levels established by the U.S. Congress, oil refiners will elect to export their products rather than sell them to American drivers. The resulting artificial shortage of fuels within the U.S, NERA’s proprietary economic modeling predicts, will raise gasoline and diesel prices to “outrageously high” levels – $93.64 per gallon for regular gasoline and $103.00 per gallon for diesel. NERA’s data indicates that ethanol is the lowest cost fuel component and that higher renewable fuel blends such as E85 would be the lowest priced fuel choice for consumers. Continue reading