NCGA Analyses Ethanol Demand and Corn Stocks

Cindy Zimmerman

National Corn Growers Association economist Krista Swanson analyzed the most recent data from USDA and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) regarding ethanol demand and corn supplies.

Swanson notes that projected corn ethanol use for the 2022/23 marketing year declined by 25 million bushels from last month, according to the February UDSA World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates report. “As the only change on the supply or demand side of the corn balance sheet, it resulted in a corresponding increase of 25 million bushels in projected corn ending stocks for the current marketing year.”

Despite a return to the post-COVID normal in 2022, fuel ethanol produced using corn trailed the years leading up to the 2020 COVID disruptions. “After dropping to 13.9 billion gallons in 2020 and recovering to 15.0 billion gallons in 2021, production in 2022 was 15.4 billion gallons. This is 88% of the 17.4 billion gallon per year total of U.S. ethanol production capacity.”

The February EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects a 2023 fuel ethanol production of 15.2 billion gallons, a 1% decline from 2022. Though not a significant reduction from 2022, the sector is falling about 5% short of the pre-COVID production levels.

Among the factors that impact ethanol production are motor gas consumption and ethanol blend rate. Motor gas consumption fell to 123.4 billion gallons in 2020, a 13.7% decline from the 2017 to 2019 annual average of 142.9 billion gallons. Statistics from the U.S. Department of Transportation show that vehicle traffic volume for 2022 was back to pre-COVID levels, indicating that miles driven is not a factor in lower ethanol use.

The ethanol blend rate, the amount of ethanol blended relative to the amount of motor gasoline consumed, has moved incrementally higher annually but still would round to 10% for the past decade. This is not surprising given nearly all gas sold in the U.S. contains 10% ethanol. Higher blends such as E15, marketed as UNL88 and E85, are available in various markets across the U.S. Expansion of and availability of higher ethanol blends is needed to break through this 10% blend wall.

Swanson concludes that the “capacity for greater corn ethanol production is already available, and the U.S. could be using more of it.”

corn, Ethanol, Ethanol News, NCGA

Biofuels Groups Submit Final RFS Proposal Comments

Cindy Zimmerman

Biofuels stakeholder organizations have submitted final comments on the proposed Renewable Fuel Standards for 2023, 2024, and 2025 to the Environmental Protection Agency prior to the deadline on February 10.

The Renewable Fuels Association said the proposed renewable volume obligations for 2023-2025 will bolster the Renewable Fuel Standard and provide for sustainable growth in low-carbon renewable liquid fuels. “Moving forward, expanding the use of low-carbon renewable fuels like ethanol is the most immediate and effective strategy for meeting the Administration’s carbon reduction goals,” wrote RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper, who noted that under the RFS, renewable fuels like ethanol have already resulted in the avoidance of more than 1.2 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. “Once finalized, the 2023-2025 RVOs will further enhance the energy security, carbon reduction, and economic benefits that have already been realized under the RFS program.”

American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) CEO Brian Jennings highlighted areas of support in the proposal, while detailing how to adjust the rule to maximize this significant new phase of the RFS to ensure the overall goal of the program is left intact — to increase the percentage of renewable fuels consumed in the U.S. Among ACE’s objections to the proposal are concerns it may retroactively waive blending levels established by this rulemaking and breaking precedent by giving Tesla and other vehicle manufacturers the ability to generate eRINs when all other RINs are generated by the producer of the renewable fuel.

In its formal comments, Clean Fuels Alliance America urged EPA to either raise RFS multiyear volumes or only finalize 2023 volumes. The group – which represents biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel – wants EPA to significantly increase the volumes for biomass-based diesel and other advanced biofuels over the next three years, based on the factors that EPA is required to consider, such as the commercial development of these fuels, the positive impact on the economy, the benefits for consumers, and the significant environmental benefits.

Comments from the Advanced Biofuels Association also urge the agency to increase the Renewable Fuels Standard Program’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2023 – 2025 to accurately reflect the volumes of advanced, biomass-based diesel, and cellulosic pools available in the market.

“The EPA’s multiyear RFS proposal ignores the proven production capacity of advanced low-carbon liquid transportation fuels, essentially undermining Congress’ intent for the program by flatlining renewable fuel obligations and stretching the law to categorize electricity as a ‘fuel’,” said Michael McAdams, president of the Advanced Biofuels Association.

ACE, advanced biofuels, aviation biofuels, Biodiesel, biofuels, Carbon, Clean Fuels Alliance, EPA, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA, RFS

Lawmakers Seek Immediate Action on Year-Round E15

Cindy Zimmerman

With the 2023 summer driving season quickly approaching, a bipartisan, bicameral groups of lawmakers sent a letter this week to the Biden administration demanding immediate action to approve a petition from Midwest governors to allow the year-round sale of E15 in their states.

The group of 31 U.S. Senators and Representatives, led by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) wrote, “Relying on an annual emergency waiver is not a permanent solution for fuel retailers, consumers, or the environment…By working swiftly to finalize the Governors’ requests, you will bring much needed certainty to our corn growers, fuel retailers, and consumers to enjoy the clean-burning, lower cost benefits of year-round E15 through the 2023 summer driving season.”

Ethanol groups applauded the action. “We thank this group of proactive biofuel supporters for seeking swift action on a petition that has been delayed for far too long,” said Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “With the summer driving season rapidly approaching, the unnecessary and illegal delay of the Governors’ petition threatens the availability of lower-cost, lower-carbon E15.”

“This letter is the most recent example of the strong bipartisan support ethanol has in Congress,” said American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) CEO Brian Jennings. “In addition to supporting the governors’ plan for E15 in their states, we echo the Members of Congress in calling for a nationwide and permanent solution for fuel retailers, consumers and the environment, and this will be a top priority at our fly-in in DC next month.”

Joining Ernst and Duckworth on the letter are Senators Baldwin (D-Wis.), Brown (D-Ohio), Fischer (R-Neb.), Grassley (R-Iowa), Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Marshall (R-Kans.), Ricketts (R-Neb.), and Smith (D-Minn.), and Representatives Alford (R-Mo.), Bost (R-Ill.), Budzinski (D-Ill.), Craig (D-Minn.), Davids (D-Kans.), Emmer (R-Minn.), Feenstra (R-Iowa), Finstad (R-Minn.), Fischbach (R-Minn.), Flood (R-Neb.), Hinson (R-Iowa), Johnson (R-S.D.), Kaptur (D-Ohio), LaHood (R-Ill.), Mann (R-Kans.), Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Nunn (R-Iowa), Pocan (D-Wis.), Smith (R-Neb.), Sorensen (D-Ill.), and Stauber (R-Minn.).

ACE, E15, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA

Illinois Passes Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credit

Cindy Zimmerman

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker signed a package of tax and revenue changes for the state which includes the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchasers credit. The bill creates a $1.50 per U.S. gallon SAF tax credit airlines can use to satisfy all or part of their state use tax liabilities.

Illinois Soybean Growers (ISG) Vice Chairman Ron Kindred says the credit supports soybean and corn farmers by promoting the domestic production of renewable fuels. “This bill represents acknowledgment of the need for Illinois-made renewable fuels that are good for the environment, economy and energy security. It also shows support for the hard work of the 43,000 Illinois soybean farmers and creates incentive to grow even more bushels of soybeans than the record-breaking 677.25 million bushels grown in Illinois in 2022.”

The legislation creates a tax credit for every gallon of SAF sold to or used by an air carrier in Illinois from June 1, 2023, to June 1, 2033. This tax credit effectively lowers the price airlines pay for SAF pumped into aircraft at airports in Illinois.

Beginning in June 2028, the state tax credit will only apply to SAF derived from domestic feedstocks, creating a new demand for Illinois soybeans and other environmentally-friendly agricultural feedstocks.

aviation biofuels, biofuels, SAF, Soybeans

Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030

Cindy Zimmerman

A new report from USDA’s Economic Research Service shows consumption of ethanol as a transportation fuel has seen significant growth in the last couple of decades in the United States, and growth is expected to continue through 2030.

Global Demand for Fuel Ethanol Through 2030 summarizes the current U.S. and international fuel ethanol markets and provides projections of future fuel ethanol demand in these markets.

Here are a few of the report findings:

For 2021 to 2030, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates and projections indicate U.S. consumption of ethanol in motor gasoline and E85 is expected to increase between 196 million gallons (1.4 percent) and 1.4 billion gallons (10.4 percent), depending on U.S. economic growth over the decade.

Though U.S. ethanol consumption has largely recovered from COVID-19 impacts, increased adoption of hybrid or electric vehicles and continued fuel efficiency gains in gasoline vehicles may decrease domestic gasoline consumption, which in turn could decrease fuel ethanol demand.

Total global demand for gasoline is expected to stagnate over the next decade, leaving changes in blend rates—domestically or abroad—as the main determinant for future changes in fuel ethanol demand.

Read the report.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, USDA

Value of Ethanol and DDGS Exports Hit Record Highs

Cindy Zimmerman

New statistical reports just released by the Renewable Fuels Association show the value of the U.S. ethanol industry’s exports soared to a record level of $7.2 billion in 2022.

Ethanol export volumes strengthened to 1.35 billion gallons in 2022, an increase of 9 percent over 2021 and the fourth-highest level on record, amid tight global fuel supplies. The value of U.S. ethanol exports surged to $3.77 billion, a record high and an increase of $1 billion over 2021. Shipments to Canada set an annual record for a single destination, tallying more than 500 million gallons. South Korea, the European Union, India, Mexico, and the United Kingdom also were sizable markets.

Meanwhile, the 2022 distillers grains trade report registers shipments at 11.0 million metric tons, five percent lower in volume than 2021 but the value of those exports surged to a record $3.4 billion. The U.S. supplied distillers grains to more than 50 countries. Mexico remained the top export market with a 20 percent share, followed by Vietnam and South Korea.

Distillers Grains, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Exports, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA

Shell and S&W Partner for Sustainable Biofuel Feedstocks

Cindy Zimmerman

S&W Seed Company and Shell Oil Products have agreed to establish a joint venture to develop and produce sustainable biofuel feedstocks called Vision Bioenergy Oilseeds LLC, which will be jointly owned by the two companies.

The venture intends to develop Camelina and other oilseed species from which oil and meal can be extracted for future processing into animal feed, biofuels, and other bioproducts. S&W will contribute its expertise in seed research, technology, production, and processing to the JV, including its seed processing and research facilities in Nampa, Idaho.

“We are pleased to be entering this JV with Shell, which leverages our seed and technology capabilities with Camelina and demonstrates how agriculture and energy can work together to lower carbon emissions by producing domestically sourced sustainable biofuel feedstocks,” commented Mark Wong, CEO of S&W Seed Company. “Shell shares our vision on the long-term opportunity Camelina provides, including enhancing farmland food production. As arable farming acreage decreases, Camelina can be a key contributor to maximizing use of every acre of farmland.”

The venture intends to start initial grain production in late 2023.

biofuels, feedstocks

NCERC Celebrates 20th Year of Operations in 2023

Cindy Zimmerman

This year the National Corn to Ethanol Research Center (NCERC) at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville enters its 20th year of leadership in the biofuels industry. The center opened its doors in October 2003 and since that time has served as the primary location for innovation in the corn ethanol industry. Now, NCERC’s clients have evolved to include companies from across the bioindustrial manufacturing sector who benefit from its unique facility and expert staff.

After six years of operations, NCERC’s business model evolved from publicly-funded to privately-funded in 2009 through contractual research services with companies in the private sector, which catalyzed innovation beyond the initial vision for the Center. As NCERC enters 2023, its client portfolio includes companies of all sizes exploring novel ways to convert bio-based feedstocks, such as corn, industrial hemp and Municipal Solid Waste, into chemicals, materials and products that consumers use every day.

Beyond its contractual research services, NCERC also serves its clients through industry-sponsored research projects that help to tackle industry-wide challenges and opportunities. Corporate sponsorships through companies like Siemens and Shimadzu Corporation also bolster NCERC’s ability to remain a leader in fermentation research.

Last year, NCERC received $1.9 million through the Rebuild Illinois Wet Lab Capital program by the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) to expand its pilot-scale fermentation capabilities. The Illinois Corn Marketing Board also contributed funding to this project and NCERC anticipates that it will be completed in the fall.

An anniversary celebration is planned for October 12 and a 20th anniversary report will be published to showcase the accomplishments of the center.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, Research

What’s New With Plasma Blue

Cindy Zimmerman

This year marks the third anniversary for Plasma Blue, which debuted at the National Biodiesel Conference in 2020. Created by the Minnesota Soybean Research & Promotion Council, Plasma Blue is based on a revolutionary new technology to help the biofuels industry better utilize renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar, in the conversion of sustainably-grown feedstocks to oil.

“This technology is so revolutionary that it takes people a few tries to actually contemplate the fact that it works,” said CEO Tom Slunecka at the recent Clean Fuels Conference in Tampa. “We’re dramatically reducing the cost of production for biodiesel…and most importantly making the product more environmentally friendly.”

The technology drives the reaction faster than any other form of transesterification and in doing so it delivers a more complete conversion when used to combine chemicals needed to make biodiesel.

Learn more in this interview.
Clean Fuels interview with Tom Slunecka, Plasma Blue (3:08)

Audio, Biodiesel, Clean Fuels Alliance

United, Tallgrass, and Green Plains Form Ethanol SAF Venture

Cindy Zimmerman

United Airlines, Tallgrass, and Green Plains have announced a new joint venture called Blue Blade Energy to develop and commercialize a novel Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) technology using ethanol as its feedstock.

If the technology is successful, Blue Blade is expected to proceed with the construction of a pilot facility in 2024, followed by a full-scale facility that could begin commercial operations by 2028. The offtake agreement could provide for enough SAF to fly more than 50,000 flights annually between United’s hub airports in Chicago and Denver, assuming current regulations requiring SAF to be blended with conventional jet fuel are removed to allow for the use of unblended SAF.

United, Tallgrass, and Green Plains will each provide their unique industry expertise to help develop the joint venture. Under this collaborative approach Tallgrass will manage research and development of the technology, including pilot plant development, and will manage the construction of the production facility. Green Plains will supply the low-carbon ethanol feedstock, and use its ethanol industry expertise to manage operations once the pilot facility is constructed. United Airlines will assist with SAF development, fuel certification and into-wing logistics, and has also agreed to purchase up to 2.7 billion gallons of SAF produced from the joint venture.

If the technology is commercialized, the location of Blue Blade’s initial plant would allow easy access to low-carbon feedstock from Green Plains’ Midwest ethanol production facilities. While the initial SAF facility intends to use ethanol, the technology has the capability to work with any alcohol-based feedstock as its fuel source.

“Our transformation to a true decarbonized biorefinery model has positioned Green Plains to help our customers and partners reduce the carbon intensity of their products by producing low-carbon proteins, oils, sugars and now decarbonized ethanol to be used in SAF,” said Todd Becker, President and CEO of Green Plains. “This partnership with world class organizations like United Airlines and Tallgrass, shows the value creation that is possible with our low-carbon platform. The potential impact of this project is a gamechanger for US agriculture, aligning a strong farm economy and a robust aviation transport industry focused on decarbonizing our skies.”

aviation biofuels, Ethanol, Ethanol News