Study Finds Gas Car Ban Would Hurt Biofuels and Farmers

Cindy Zimmerman

*Updated with audio interview*

The Agricultural Retailers Association (ARA) has just released a study on the impacts of increased electric vehicle penetration on U.S. biofuels, agriculture and the economy. Proposals to ban internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 and 2050 served as the economic models for the study, along with a base case provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook.

The study found that U.S. light-duty and freight vehicle consumption of ethanol and biodiesel could decline up to 90 percent to 1.1 billion gallons and up to 61 percent to 0.8 billion gallons, respectively.

Corn and soybean consumption could decrease by up to 2.0 billion bushels and up to 470 million bushels, respectively. Corn prices fall up to 50 percent to $1.74 per bushel, while soybean prices fall up to 44 percent to $4.92 per bushel.

Overall, U.S. net farm income would decrease by up to $27 billion due to a proposed ban.

This study makes clear that an internal combustion engine vehicle ban could devastate the agriculture community. Proposals that seek to rush this ban to 2035 have the most severe impacts, but any ban results in dramatic decreases in ethanol, biodiesel, corn and soybean prices, and demand for fertilizer and other agricultural products. These are burdens carried disproportionately by the agriculture community.

The study found that economic losses throughout the biofuels value chain range from $105 billion to $185 billion, and cumulative federal, state, and local tax revenues losses range from $39 billion to $69 billion through 2050.

Richard Gupton, ARA Senior Vice President Public Policy & Counsel, talks about the study in this interview.
ARA gas car ban study (4:21)

Read the entire study

ARA, Audio, Biodiesel, Electric Vehicles, Ethanol, Ethanol News

Pacific Ethanol Changing Brand and Focus

Cindy Zimmerman

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEI) has announced a strategic realignment to focus on specialty alcohols and essential ingredients, as well as its intent to change its corporate name.

“Our company was founded to supply low carbon renewable fuel for the transportation market. While we will continue to participate in that market, transportation fuels are no longer our primary focus. Beginning with our acquisition of Illinois Corn Processing, LLC in 2017 and continuing with our ongoing expansion of specialty alcohol production begun earlier this year, we have been making investments to transition our business from focusing on fuels to focusing on specialty alcohols and essential ingredients used in consumer products, including alcoholic beverages, personal care products, sanitizers, cleaners and pharmaceuticals. We recently obtained ISO 9001 certification for our largest specialty alcohols production facility, and we are pursuing additional qualifications that will enable us to supply specialty alcohols used in a wider range of consumer products. We believe focusing on products for these markets aligns us with strong secular growth trends that will enable us to deliver greater and more consistent profitability for our shareholders,” stated Mike Kandris, Pacific Ethanol’s Chief Executive Officer.

Going forward, the company will focus on specialty alcohols and essential ingredients for four key markets: Health, Home & Beauty; Food & Beverage; Essential Ingredients; and Renewable Fuels. The company idled three of its western fuel-grade ethanol facilities in California and Idaho earlier this year, while continuing to operate its Columbia, Oregon distillery. As part of the company’s strategic realignment and new business focus, it intends to sell or re-purpose these assets.

Read more from PEI.

Ethanol, Ethanol News

Ethanol Stakeholders Comment on FFV Standards

Cindy Zimmerman

Ethanol stakeholder organizations submitted comments to the Environmental Protection Agency this week regarding the E85 Flexible Fuel Vehicle Weighting Factor (F-factor) for Model Year 2021 and Later Vehicles.

Comments from the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) support EPA’s new approach to maintaining some level of certainty for automakers, but would like to see the agency “provide a long-term floor and “more robust” E85 usage factors for future model years, given expected growth and the many benefits provided by ethanol flex fuels.”

“Based on our discussion with automakers, it is clear that manufacturers will hesitate to invest in certain technologies, like FFVs, unless there is some assurance that those vehicles technologies will help enable CAFE and GHG standard compliance over multiple model years,” wrote Kelly Davis, RFA Vice President for Regulatory Affairs. “Fuel blenders and retailers also need multi-year certainty regarding the likely mix of light-duty vehicles so that they may appropriately direct their investments in wholesale and retail fuel infrastructure.”

The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) supports an F-factor of at least 0.20 for model year 2021 and later vehicles, and encourages EPA to consider “forward-looking data which indicate E85 use will significantly rise in the future. Until such time EPA establishes a 0.20 or greater F-factor, ACE strongly encourages the Agency to maintain the 0.14 F-factor, so the value does not default to zero.”

The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and 14 state corn grower groups also urged EPA to provide more certainty and use forward-looking data analysis to update policy that will lead to greater flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) production and increased demand for higher blends of ethanol.

“As the producers of the primary feedstock for ethanol, corn farmers support a forward-looking, consistent, long-term F-factor that provides automakers with greater certainty in compliance crediting for planning vehicle production,” the associations wrote.

ACE, automotive, corn, E85, EPA, Ethanol, Ethanol News, NCGA, RFA

Ethanol Town Hall Meeting

Cindy Zimmerman

The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and Growth Energy will hold a free virtual town hall meeting about ethanol on Wednesday, October 28 at 11:00 a.m. Central/12:00 p.m. Eastern.

Farmers, biofuel producers and leaders of both businesses and communities are invited to participate to discuss the latest policy priorities for the industry, opportunities for growth in the domestic and global marketplace, and increasing consumer choice at the pump with higher blends.

Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor and NCGA President John Linder will be participating in the Town Hall with Farm Journal’s Chip Flory.

Register on line.

corn, Ethanol, Ethanol News, NCGA, Webinar

National Biodiesel Foundation Receives Grants

Cindy Zimmerman

The National Biodiesel Foundation has been awarded two Environmental Protection Agency grants through the 2021 Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA) program.

The first is in partnership with the District of Columbia (DC) Department of Public Works and DC Department of Water. The second is with the Iowa Department of Transportation. The Foundation is also partnering with Optimus Technologies and Renewable Energy Group (REG) on projects supporting the purchase of new vehicles equipped to run on 100% biodiesel (B100).

The DC project will support the purchase of 24 short-haul utility replacement vehicles equipped with Selective Catalytic Reduction. The Iowa project will replace a multi-purpose vehicle in both Ames and Des-Moines. All replacement vehicles will use Optimus Technologies’ Vector system, allowing the vehicles to operate exclusively on 100% biodiesel to optimize fuel savings, increase performance, and reduce emissions. The projects include an educational effort to persons and organizations owning and operating the fleets and public outreach conducted through local partnerships.

Also partnering in the projects are Renewable Energy Group (REG), which is providing the B100 refueling infrastructure for the fleets. In DC, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and Greater Washington Regional Clean Cities Coalition will provide outreach and education. In Iowa, the Iowa Biodiesel Board and Iowa Renewable Fuels Association will assist in promoting the results and benefits of the Iowa DOT vehicles.

Biodiesel, NBB

RFA Urges Tariffs on Brazil Ethanol

Cindy Zimmerman

While Brazil is still abiding by the 90 day extension of the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for ethanol announced last month, talks with the United States to eliminate the tariff stalled last week and the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) is asking President Trump to take action.

In a letter to the president, RFA called on President Trump to move forward in seeking fairness in ethanol trade policy with Brazil, citing his August pledge to consider reciprocity with respect to Brazilian ethanol imports and reminded him of a commitment from the U.S. Trade Representative in September to “ensure that the ethanol industries in both countries will be treated fairly.”

“Unfortunately, it does not appear that any further progress is being made toward elimination of Brazil’s protectionist ethanol trade policies and restoration of the previous free and fair ethanol trade relationship we enjoyed with Brazil,” wrote RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Instead, it appears likely that Brazil will allow its temporary tariff-free quota to expire again on December 14, at which time a 20 percent (or higher) tariff could be applied to all ethanol imports from the United States.”

RFA says it has become clear that Brazil no longer shares the American industry’s desire for free and open biofuel markets. Thus, the association is urging the administration to move forward with reciprocal tariffs on ethanol imports from Brazil.

According to RFA, imports of Brazilian ethanol have surged in recent months, with new shipments appearing at U.S. ports in nine of the past 12 weeks. Year-to-date imports of Brazilian ethanol exceed the same period in 2019 by 15 percent and are at a seven-year high. At the same time, no U.S. fuel ethanol has been shipped to Brazil since May.

Brazil, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Exports, RFA

Biden Wants Zero Emissions by 2025, or 2050

Cindy Zimmerman

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden expressed support for “complete zero emissions by 2025” by transitioning away from oil during the debate with President Donald Trump Thursday night.

“Because the oil industry pollutes significantly,” said Biden. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.”

Biden mentioned solar and wind energy, but renewable fuels were not specifically mentioned by either candidate. Later in the segment on climate change, Biden stretched the deadline for zero emissions beyond 2025. “We have to move toward net zero emissions. The first place to do that by the year 2035 is in energy production, by 2050 totally.”

The former vice president also said he is does “rule out banning fracking,” but wants to make sure we can “capture the emissions from the fracking.”

Listen to some of the debate on energy here:
Presidential debate discussion on energy (2:16)

Audio, Energy, Oil, politics, Renewable Energy

Iowa Groups Ask Candidates to Oppose EV Legislation

Cindy Zimmerman

The Iowa Biodiesel Board (IBB) and Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) are asking all candidates in Iowa running for federal office to take a stand against the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2020 recently introduced in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

IBB and IRFA says the legislation would restrict the sale of vehicles that can use biofuels as soon as 2025 and would ban biofuel-powered vehicles by 2035.

“Needless to say, banning the sale of new vehicles powered by biofuels would be a hammer blow to Iowa’s ethanol and biodiesel producers and would crush a vital market for Iowa farmers,” said IRFA Executive Director Monte Shaw and IBB Executive Director Grant Kimberley in the letter. “Today, over half of Iowa’s corn crop goes into the production of ethanol and its coproducts, and over one-third of Iowa soybean oil goes to biodiesel production. Losing this market could very likely trigger another farm crisis.”

IRFA and IBB are urging all candidates to publicly oppose such legislation as it would do devastating harm to Iowa biofuel producers and farmers.

Biodiesel, biofuels, Electric Vehicles, Ethanol, Ethanol News

Oil State Senators Ask EPA to Drop 2021 RFS

Cindy Zimmerman

A group of 15 U.S. Senators representing oil refining states sent a letter to EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler this week asking him to simply waive the Renewable Fuel Standard requirements for 2021 to “account for the unprecedented collapse in demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.”

The Renewable Fuels Association blasted the senators’ request, first noting that jet fuel is not subject to renewable fuel blending requirements under the RFS.

“It looks like the focus of the oil industry’s RFS avoidance strategy is shifting from ‘small-refinery waivers’ to ‘all-refinery waivers,'” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “But this letter from a handful of refinery-state Senators comes nowhere close to satisfying the high standard required to grant a general waiver of the RFS volumes—and EPA knows that. By asking Administrator Wheeler to undercut the 2021 RFS standards to avoid the so-called ‘blend wall,’ these Senators are unashamedly encouraging EPA to ignore clear-cut court decisions and established case law.”

“Enough is enough. EPA should immediately reject this attempt to further undermine the RFS with unjustifiable and unlawful waivers,” Cooper said. “The Senators’ letter should go straight to EPA’s dumpster, which is already littered with other baseless waiver petitions and ridiculous RFS complaints from oil state politicians and refiners.”

Read more from RFA.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, RFA, RFS

California E15 Testing to Start

Cindy Zimmerman

With more than 15 million cars registered in the state, California has almost twice as many vehicles on the road than any other state in the nation, which makes it the number one market for growing domestic ethanol demand.

To that end, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), state corn organizations, ethanol groups and the auto industry, are working with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to conduct vehicle testing using 15 percent ethanol (E15) at the University of California at Riverside (UCR). The Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy, and the United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR) are partnering on the study.

The testing will demonstrate the environmental benefits and compatibility of E15 in selected makes and models of vehicles. This process will help pave the way for sales of E15 and higher blends of ethanol in California.

“With the scope of research agreed upon and contracts signed, E15 testing in California can move forward,” said JR Roesner, Indiana farmer and Ethanol Action Team (ETHAT) member. “If we can achieve E15 as the base fuel in California, based on estimated total gasoline usage in the state in 2015, the potential market opportunity would be roughly 750 million gallons of ethanol or 260 million bushels of corn.”

Tests will be conducted on 20 late-model vehicles to measure tailpipe and evaporative emissions. Testing a broad sample of makes, models, and technology levels with both E10 and E15 blends will provide CARB with the necessary information to permit the sale of E15 in California.

“Motor gasoline volatility is varied throughout the year to ensure good cold-start and drivability while also controlling evaporative emissions,” said Brian West, NCGA contributor and former Group Leader for the Fuels and Engines Research Group at the National Transportation Research Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. “Summer fuel is used in certification tests, and we wanted to use retail fuel for this program. If the refiners had begun the changeover to fall/winter gasolines, we would have been significantly delayed either waiting for 2021 summer fuel or having to source a specialty fuel, which is very expensive and also has very long lead times.”

corn, E15, Ethanol, Ethanol News, NCGA, RFA