energy.agwired.com

America used more gasoline in 2006, but that increase was entirely offset by ethanol.

According to the American Petroleum Institute’s December 2006 statistics report, gasoline deliveries in 2006 increased a modest 0.8 percent from 2005 to 9.2 million barrels, or 386 million gallons, per day.

The year’s higher volume of gasoline deliveries was, in effect, met entirely by a substantial jump in the blending of ethanol into gasoline. Ethanol use in gasoline rose by more than 1 billion gallons, or nearly 35 percent, to an estimated 5.4 billion gallons in 2006. More than 40 percent of all gasoline consumed in the U.S. now includes ethanol.

That was good news to the Renewable Fuels Association. President Bob Dinneen commented, “The fact ethanol blends are making up for the entire growth in gasoline consumption means our nation is having to import less oil than would otherwise be needed.”

This week’s Associated Press Centerpiece report focuses on ethanol plants powered by manure and other waste material.

Ranchers have long been fond of saying cattle manure smells like money.

Now, folks in the business of making ethanol are smelling dollars too – in the methane gas emitted by manure at large cattle feedlots and dairies.

The article looks at several companies that are addressing the “criticism that making ethanol uses too much natural gas or coal to produce” by using more environmentally-friendly sources of energy.

Among those highlighted are Kansas-based E3 BioFuels, Texas-based Panda Ethanol and Bion Environmental Technologies.

Financial analysts are predicting dire times for the ethanol boom now that higher corn prices and lower gas prices are putting the squeeze on industry profits.

A Reuters UK article quotes from a Credit Suisse report that predicts a lower completion rate for planned ethanol plant projects.

“Back in July 2006, a new plant would have commanded returns in the 35-40 percent range using $2.50/bushel corn and $2.50 per gallon ethanol,” Credit Suisse said.

“More recent prices of $2 per gallon ethanol and $3.50/bushel corn generate implied returns of only 5-13 percent,” the report added.

Reuters also quotes a Goldman Sachs report, “Continued high levels of corn prices and low margins would make it more profitable for an integrated producer to actually sell the corn into the corn market rather than to turn it into ethanol at a lower profit.”

The Wall Street Journal reports that publicly-traded ethanol companies will be among those most impacted by lower oil prices.

As oil’s price falls, alternative-energy sources become less attractive because they usually are more expensive to produce than traditional sources. Ethanol producers could be hurt as rising corn prices send their cost of production higher, and as crude and gasoline prices fall.

Ethanol prices have been dropping sharply in the past few weeks. Dow Jones reports that national rack ethanol prices as of Monday averaged around $2.179, according to ethanolmarkets.com, compared to an average price of $2.4366 as of Jan. 10.

Shares of some ethanol producers such as Vera Sun, Aventine and Archer Daniels Midland fell earlier this month but, “the stock prices have rebounded in hopes for positive comments about renewable fuels in President Bush’s State of the Union address Tuesday.”

The Dow Jones article adds that even with the tighter margins ethanol producers can hold out for now.

Dan Basse, president of AgResource, said in a research note that “most ethanol plants contract their product sales for two to four months at a time, so corn prices will have to reach levels that produce at least a 10% margin loss“ before curtailing production.

Another analyst says “the ethanol plants least likely to have problems with the corn price hike and energy price dip are the farmer-owned co-operatives.”

E85 Inc. is a name that has been popping up in cities from New Jersey to New Mexico – a company that reportedly “plans to build a billion-dollar string of ethanol plants.”

The Seattle Times did some research to find out who is behind the company and what they hope to accomplish.

Mark Dassel, E85’s senior vice president, says there’s no real mystery — he and a skeleton staff have simply been too busy to answer inquiries: “This is a 7-day-a-week, 24-hour-a-day job.”

Skimping on details, he lays out an exceedingly ambitious agenda: E85 plans to quickly put up 10 ethanol plants costing about $150 million each. Together these will produce more than 1 billion gallons of ethanol annually; the company will buy an additional 1 to 2 billion gallons from other plants, he says.

Dassel contends E85’s rapid, cookie-cutter approach means “we’re going to be the low-cost producer” when a shakeout comes.

E85 Inc. is also planning plants in Michican, Ohio and North Carolina.

News coverage in advance of the president’s State of the Union address Tuesday is comparing the rhetoric of last year’s speech to what has really been accomplished so far when it comes to energy independence.

The Associated Press reports President Bush is expected to renew concerns about energy security in his State of the Union address. But will the rhetoric be followed by action? Up to now, the record has been mixed.

The president is expected to call for a “sharp escalation of ethanol use in his speech,” which is a “political sure bet as ethanol has widespread bipartisan support.” But the article says the administration has been criticized for “not living up to the rhetoric” since not enough funding has been provided for research into cellulosic ethanol development, as promised last year.