energy.agwired.com

Here are a couple of recent editorials from the Des Moines Register that hit on the issue of corn ethanol being only the beginning for curing our addiction to oil.

“Ethanol is just the beginning” notes the obvious – “grain-based ethanol cannot be anything more than a supplement. It can never totally replace gasoline.”

It then goes on to say the expectation is that the feedstock for ethanol will expand far beyond corn. Cellulosic ethanol made from perennial crops such as switchgrass, from trees and wood chips, from crop residue including corn stover, will have a better net-energy balance than today’s ethanol and will be more plentiful… The government estimates that the nation could produce enough cellulosic ethanol to displace 30 percent of petroleum consumption.

In Sunday’s DMR, ISU professor Robert Brown says the 30 percent figure is from a joint Department of Energy-U.S. Dept. of Agriculture “billion ton” study that actually underestimates the potential of biomass to replace gasoline consumption in the United States.

According to Brown, “the 1.3 billion tons of biomass identified in the DOE-USDA study could displace as much as 66 percent of our current gasoline demand.”

Now that would be significant. Yes, it will take a few years, but this is what people in the ethanol industry are talking about. Corn ethanol is just the beginning.

The media has made much this week about the Consumer Reports report that ethanol is less fuel efficient than gasoline. This is something the ethanol industry freely admits.

The “quick take” from the Consumer Report is this:
E85, which is 85 percent ethanol, emits less smog-causing pollutants than gasoline, but provides fewer miles per gallon, costs more, and is hard to find outside the Midwest.

All true statements at this particular point in time. The first statement – that ethanol “emits less smog-causing pollutants than gasoline” – is universally true and will not change. It is also one of the primary reasons that people who are concerned about global warming or other environmental issues should advocate the use of ethanol in this country.

The second statement – that ethanol provides few miles per gallon – could change if auto makers come up with different types of engines that are made to run on ethanol instead of gasoline. Indy cars are being tuned to run more efficiently on ethanol, since they are making the switch to 100 percent ethanol next year.

Third – ethanol costs more. This is a changable truth. Consumer Reports only looked at ethanol prices in the past several months when they have been historically high due to strong demand fueled by the switch from MTBE to ethanol as an oxygenate in major metropolitan areas. The basic law of supply and demand dictates that the price will decline as the supply increases, and in fact, prices have already come down in recent weeks.

Finally, the lack of availability outside the midwest is changing every day. For example, Phil Lampert with the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition notes that Kroger just opened about 20 new E85 fueling stations in Texas, and he says, “By this time next year we expect to have 300 (e85) stations in New York state where today there are zero.”

NEVC would like to see 1500 E85 pumps around the nation by the end of this year. The NEVC website www.e85fuel.org is updated daily with new places where E85 fuel can be found around the nation.

Since most ethanol production facilities are located in the midwest, that’s where most of the E85 pumps are going right now. But, as production begins to start up in New York, California, Texas, Florida, etc. there will be more and more. Ethanol is about the environment, national security and vehicle performance, not about fuel economy. But, hopefully as production increases it will ultimately end up costing less and saving consumers money in the long run.

No one expects ethanol to completely replace gasoline, but simply REDUCING our dependence on foreign oil is a step in the right direction.