The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August Supply and Demand Estimate calls for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks, which all highlight the need to remove artificial regulatory barriers that are undercutting demand and constraining market opportunities for both corn and ethanol, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.
For 2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection.
For 2025/26, total U.S. corn use is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion with feed and residual use up 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents $3.90 per bushel.
RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper says the report is a cause for alarm. “Our nation’s farmers are doing their job—they are sustainably and efficiently producing the largest corn crop in history. But antiquated policies and regulations—like the summertime prohibition on E15, outdated pump labeling obligations, and needless equipment certification requirements—are stifling demand and failing America’s farmers,” Cooper said. “The best way to boost demand for U.S. crops is to truly unleash American ethanol and open the market to higher blends.”
RFA is calling on Congress to pass the Nationwide Fuel Retailer and Consumer Choice Act to allow year-round, nationwide E15; adopt the Ethanol for America Act, which would streamline regulatory requirements related to E15 pump labeling and equipment compatibility; and eliminate the century-old “denaturant” requirements, which “obligate ethanol producers to poison their clean, renewable fuel with dirty, toxic substances.” In addition, the Administration should finalize strong RFS volumes, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any exempted volumes.
“Congress and the Administration can take these simple steps to strengthen America’s agriculture sector and stave off an impending crisis in farm country,” Cooper said. “We urge our nation’s leaders to act quickly to open new market opportunities for America’s farmers by removing barriers to increased ethanol consumption.”
USDA is forecasting that direct government payments to farmers will hit $42.4 billion in 2025, more than quadruple the 2024 level and the second-highest ever (trailing only the $45.6 billion distributed in 2020, when the COVID pandemic cratered global demand for farm products). According to RFA, opening new market opportunities for corn and ethanol—like year-round E15—would restore demand-driven dynamics in the grain market and significantly reduce the need for government assistance.