USDA Corn Outlook for Lower Production, Higher Prices

Cindy Zimmerman

USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released Thursday report the 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices.

The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels.

Total U.S. corn use in 2022/23 is forecast to fall 2.5 percent on declines in domestic use and exports with corn used for ethanol unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized would be the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.

corn, USDA