The October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates out today from USDA once again lowered its 2019-20 outlook for U.S. corn production, exports, use for ethanol, and ending stocks.
Corn production is forecast at 13.779 billion bushels, down 20 million as a decline in harvested area more than offsets an increased yield forecast. Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month on a reduced crop and lower beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and U.S. price competitiveness. Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during September.
Projected feed and residual use is up 125 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2018/19. Corn ending stocks for 2019/20 are lowered 261 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 20 cents to $3.80 per bushel.