RFA Editorial: SAF Modeling About Current vs Old Data

Cindy Zimmerman

In the following editorial, Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper explains how the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) modeling debate isn’t really about “GREET vs. ICAO.” It’s about current data vs. old data.

Last year’s Inflation Reduction Act created tax credits meant to stimulate the production and use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a critical tool in the aviation sector’s decarbonization strategy.

To qualify for the tax credits, SAF must reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% compared to conventional jet fuel. SAF that achieves the minimum 50% reduction earns a tax credit worth $1.25 per gallon. The value of the credit increases as the carbon intensity of the SAF decreases, topping out at $1.75 per gallon for SAF that has net-zero or carbon-negative emissions. For the purposes of estimating the carbon intensity of different SAF options, Congress directed the U.S. Treasury to use the methodology established by the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) or a “similar methodology.”

RFA and many other stakeholders (including airlines, SAF producers, farm groups, members of Congress and university researchers) have argued that Treasury should recognize the Department of Energy’s GREET model as a “similar methodology” for the purposes of determining SAF carbon intensity (and, thus, tax credit values). Meanwhile, some in the environmental community are pushing the Treasury to require that the ICAO methodology be used exclusively.

Those environmental groups have attempted to label our advocacy on SAF modeling as some kind of behind-the-scenes, clandestine lobbying effort to purportedly “weaken” SAF standards. Nothing could be further from the truth.Read More

aviation biofuels, Ethanol, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA, SAF

The ACE Kicks Off This Week

Cindy Zimmerman

Ethanol producers and supporters are gathering this week in Minneapolis for the 36th annual American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) Conference, August 23-25, at the Minneapolis Marriott City Center.

With the theme “Everything Counts,” the conference provides two days of general sessions, including updates from ACE leadership, and feature topics like new uses and markets for ethanol producers, the retail marketplace for E15 and E85, farm-to-biofuel carbon market opportunities, and trade developments. Keynote speaker for the conference will be Tom Kloza, Global Head of Energy Analysis, OPIS, who will give his “Ethanol Outlook in a Changing Energy Market Landscape” during the Thursday morning general session.

“I look forward to exploring the current landscape of the liquid fuel market, and what to expect in the months ahead at The ACE conference,” Kloza said. “I’ll take attendees through the incredibly flawed world of supply and demand statistics, why the next 18 months may see a whipsaw action for benchmark petroleum futures, where refining will thrive and where plants may idle, what to expect for motor fuel pricing and supply in the year ahead, and the vulnerability of U.S. gasoline markets, as we enter the early beginnings of hurricane season.”

The conference also offers breakout sessions with subjects covering the latest in technology updates, strategic planning advice, as well as ways for ethanol plants to lower their carbon score and raise profitability. The breakouts will be held concurrently in three rounds on the afternoon of Thursday, August 24, following the morning general session panels.

To top off the day on Thursday, ACE has reserved tickets for attendees to enjoy the Minnesota Twins versus Texas Rangers game oin the Delta SKY360° Club as the Thursday evening networking reception. The cost is just $36 for access to this premium seating experience – click here to register.

Learn more about the conference in this interview with ACE Vice President of Public Affairs Katie Muckenhirn.
2023 ACE Conference preview interview with Katie Muckenhirn, ACE 6:34

ACE, ACE Ethanol Conference, Audio, Ethanol, Ethanol News

Congressional Staff Learn About Biofuels

Cindy Zimmerman

Congressional and federal agency staff members learned all about biofuels in Minnesota and Iowa last week during the 2023 Biofuels Science and Sustainability Tour.

Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) hosted the tour which began Aug 14 in Des Moines and traveled through Minnesota in cooperation with MN Bio-Fuels. This included a tour of Guardian Energy in Janesville, visiting one of the first retailers in the state to offer E15 (Hennen’s Minnoco in Shakopee ) and providing the staffers with an overview of the emerging sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market during a tour of the Minneapolis – St Paul International Airport.

Following the visit at Guardian Energy, the group headed to Hennen’s Minnoco in Shakopee where they were briefed on how federal funding through the Higher Blends Infrastructure Investment Program, as well as state infrastructure funding, has helped increase the number of fuel retailers offering E15 and E85 in Minnesota.

On Aug 17, the group were briefed by both Delta Airlines and Gevo at the Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport on how SAF made from agriculture feedstocks can contribute to meeting the state’s carbon reduction goals. The group was also briefed by representatives from the Minnesota Farmers Union on how climate smart agronomic practices can be incorporated into the lifecycle accounting process at ethanol plants to produce ethanol with a lower carbon footprint.

biofuels, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Uncategorized

RFA Members Making Progress Toward Net-Zero Emissions

Cindy Zimmerman

As the country celebrated the first anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act becoming law this week, the Renewable Fuels Association released a new inventory of information about investments ethanol plant members are making to reduce the carbon intensity of the renewable fuels and bioproducts they produce.

Two years ago, RFA members sent a letter to President Biden committing to achieve average net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and even as the ethanol industry awaits guidance on the implementation of key IRA tax provisions, the legislation has already stimulated new investment in low-carbon technologies and accelerated efforts to achieve that goal.

“While RFA’s members started down the path to net-zero emissions more than two years ago, passage of the IRA last summer greatly accelerated the pace of their journey,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “The IRA bill’s enhancement of the carbon capture, utilization and sequestration tax credit, along with its establishment of a clean fuel production credit, sustainable aviation fuel credit, and funding for regenerative agriculture practices all helped to supercharge the ethanol industry’s drive to net zero. Every single one of our member companies is taking steps to reduce carbon intensity, and the inventory we are releasing today shares just a fraction of the exciting innovation stories that are occurring across the industry. In the year since the IRA was adopted, major investments have already been made, which underscores the critical importance of ensuring that forthcoming tax credit guidance and regulations are completed in a timely, transparent, and science-based manner.”

Details on specific steps RFA members are taking to reduce carbon intensity and invest in clean energy technologies reflect a diverse array of new technologies and practices—including process energy efficiency projects, installing solar fields and wind turbines adjacent to biorefineries, converting fermentation CO2 into green methanol, capturing and geologically sequestering fermentation CO2, and working with local farmers to reward lower-carbon farming practices.

According to a survey of RFA members released in June, four out of five say they are already on track to produce ethanol with net-zero carbon intensity by 2050 or sooner. However, policy and regulatory uncertainty, inaccurate carbon modeling, and permitting challenges were cited as some of the potential obstacles to reaching the goal.

Carbon, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA

ACE Calls on Biden to Get EPA to Approve Waiver

Cindy Zimmerman

The American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) is calling on President Joe Biden to have the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalize the proposed regulation to eliminate the 1-pound per square inch (psi) Reid vapor pressure (RVP) waiver for gasoline containing 10 percent ethanol (E10) in eight states.

In a letter to President Biden, ACE CEO Brian Jennings outlined how “what should have been a straightforward undertaking by EPA to approve a petition submitted by eight governors on April 28, 2022, allowing retailers in their states to sell E15 year-round, has unfortunately turned into a sixteen-month odyssey.”

ACE thanked President Biden for directing EPA to invoke its emergency authority this summer and in 2022 to issue temporary fuel waivers allowing continued sales of E15 to prevent fuel supply shortages which could have raised prices at the pump for millions of Americans. However, the letter caveats, we also need EPA at long last to approve the Governors’ petition, so emergency steps are not needed in the future, and motorists in the eight states can benefit from uninterrupted E15 availability in time for the 2024 summer driving season.

The letter referred to EPA’s multiple delays during the regulatory process of this rule. EPA was required to act by July 27, 2022 by law, but didn’t issue a proposed rule until March 6, 2023 – 249 days after the legal deadline. “EPA issued a proposed rule to grant the Governors’ petition but also used its own tardiness to postpone sale of E15 year-round until April 28, 2024,” Jennings said in the letter. “An additional 161 days have passed, and EPA appears no closer to complying with the law and approving the Governors’ request.”

Jennings noted that states should not have to resort to suing EPA, as Iowa and Nebraska have done, to get the agency take final action.

ACE, EPA, Ethanol

USDA Adjusts Corn and Soybean Yields in New Report

Cindy Zimmerman

USDA’s first survey-based forecasts for the season slightly lowered yields for corn and soybeans compared to projections last month.

In the August Crop Production report released Friday, USDA puts corn production for 2023/24 at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection, but ten percent more than 2022 which would be the second highest on record behind 2016/17. The corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels per acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than July’s forecast. The report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago.

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August, also released on Friday, cuts total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 by 95 million bushels to 14.4 billion with feed and residual use lowered 25 million bushels while corn use for ethanol remained the same at 5.3 billion.

Soybean production for 2023/24 is forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, down 95 million from July on lower yields and down
2 percent from 2022. Harvested area is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and South Carolina will be record highs.

corn, Ethanol, Soybeans, USDA

Exports of Ethanol and DDGS Slightly Lower in June

Cindy Zimmerman

According to the latest trade analysis from the Renewable Fuels Association, U.S. exports of ethanol and dried distillers grains (DDGS) were both down about one percent in June.

U.S. ethanol exports edged 1% lower to 111.9 million gallons (mg). Nearly all gallons (99%) landed in just 10 markets, with Canada serving as our largest destination for the 27th consecutive month and representing 45% of June sales. The U.S. shipped 50.8 mg of ethanol north of our border—0.3% less than May and the third largest on record—which included 65% of total U.S. denatured fuel exports for the month. The European Union imported 15.8 mg (nearly a third less than May), while the United Kingdom imported 13.5 mg (a 40% month-over month jump). Rounding out the major markets are South Korea (10.3 mg, +6%), Peru (5.5 mg, -11%), Colombia (5.5 mg, -9%), Mexico (4.1 mg, +181%), Nigeria (3.3 mg, up from zero), Singapore (1.0 mg, up from essentially zero), and Jamaica (0.5 mg, -83%). Brazil and India were notably absent from the market. U.S. ethanol exports for the first half of 2023 total 704.9 mg, coming in 11% below last year at this time.

U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, totaled 949,904 metric tons (mt) in June. While this was 1% less than May and 6% behind year-ago volumes, most of our larger markets experienced appreciable growth. Mexico captured the largest market share (20%) for the 12th consecutive month with imports of 189,364 mt, up 16% from May. Vietnam imported 112,176 mt, up 34% to an 8-month high, and Indonesia imported 92,083, up 3% to an 11-month high. Other substantial markets included South Korea (88,104 mt, -15%), the European Union (75,562 mt, up fivefold to a 9-month high), Canada (71,153, +20% to an 11-month high), Turkey (46,612 mt, -68%), and Israel (39,803 mt, +29% to an 11-month high). DDGS exports for the first half of 2023 total 5.12 million mt, lagging 10% behind last year at this time.

Ethanol, Ethanol News, Exports, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA

Join The Ace at the Ballpark

Cindy Zimmerman

Join colleagues in the ethanol industry for a networking reception that is sure to be a smash hit at The ACE – the 36th American Coalition for Ethanol annual conference.

ACE has reserved tickets for attendees to enjoy the Minnesota Twins versus Texas Rangers game on the evening of August 24 in the Delta SKY360° Club as the Thursday evening networking reception. The cost is just $36 for access to this premium seating experience – click here to register.

ACE, ACE Ethanol Conference

Ethanol Report on Current Issues

Cindy Zimmerman

The Renewable Fuels Association has been working on a couple of issues this summer that are important to the future of the ethanol industry.

In this edition of The Ethanol Report podcast, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper provides an update on the Midwest governor’s petition for E15, the Flex Fuel Fairness act, EPA’s proposed tailpipe emissions standards, and defining Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

Ethanol Report 8-9-23 26:19

The Ethanol Report is a podcast about the latest news and information in the ethanol industry that has been sponsored by the Renewable Fuels Association since 2008.

Choose an option to subscribe

Audio, aviation biofuels, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Ethanol Report, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA

Iowa and Nebraska Sue EPA Over E15 Waiver Delay

Cindy Zimmerman

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird and Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers joined together Monday to sue the Environmental Protection Agency for failing to to meet a statutory deadline in response to petitions from their governors and six others to reduce evaporative emissions and allow year-round sales of E15.

“The Biden Administration has dragged its feet long enough,” said Attorney General Bird. “Hardworking Iowans deserve a cheaper, cleaner option at the gas pump. But despite the Governors’ request, the EPA has refused to allow Iowans to buy the fuel they want. Well, Iowans are done waiting. We’re taking President Biden and the EPA to court to make E15 available year-round.”

“The Biden Administration knows that increasing access to E15 will help consumers obtain some relief from the rising cost of gasoline, provide support for our farmers, and strengthen US energy security during a turbulent time,” said Attorney General Hilgers. “Earlier this year the administration recognized as much when it issued a temporary waiver. There is no reason that waiver shouldn’t be made permanent.”

The governors of eight Midwestern states petitioned EPA back in April 2022 to make the regulatory change and even though the Clean Air Act requiring the EPA to comply within 90 days, it has now been over a year. EPA proposed regulations in March to require fuel suppliers in these states to slightly reduce the volatility of gasoline beginning on May 1, 2024, which would reduce the potential for evaporative emissions and facilitate year-round sales of E15 blends.

Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper, who sent a letter to EPA last week on the issue, said they are hopeful that the action taken by Iowa and Nebraska will help break the logjam and cause EPA to complete the process as soon as possible to provide a long term solution to allow E15 sales year round. “We greatly appreciate the emergency action taken by EPA the past two summers to extend fuel supplies, avert shortages, and keep pump prices lower by allowing continued E15 sales during the summer,” Cooper said. “However, a permanent solution that provides stability and clarity to the marketplace is needed. Finalizing and implementing the governors’ petition as soon as possible will provide the certainty the marketplace is looking for.”

American Coalition for Ethanol (ACE) CEO Brian Jennings said, “EPA has been dragging its feet this entire rulemaking process, and we applaud Iowa Attorney General Bird and Nebraska Attorney General Hilgers for taking action to hold EPA accountable. We join them in imploring EPA finalize the plan developed by several Midwestern states so that E15 will be available next summer.”

ACE, E15, EPA, Ethanol, Ethanol News, Renewable Fuels Association, RFA