A new report from Life Cycle Associates on “Advances in Estimation of Land Use Change Emissions Associated with Ethanol” shows that the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) method of calculating hypothetical indirect land use change (ILUC) associated with ethanol is obsolete and should be revised.

According to Life Cycle Associates, “The cumulative effect of methodological improvements has been a steady reduction in estimated GHG emissions from corn ethanol land use change, producing results that are more consistent with observed global market behavior.” After extensively reviewing the evolution of models and emissions factor estimates, they conclude, “These improvements have allowed for a more nuanced and accurate assessment of how modeled biofuel shocks in response to different policies affect land use and associated GHG emissions. A key outcome of these analysis efforts is a reduction in predicted GHG emissions from LUC associated with corn ethanol.”

They also state, “Analysts recommend using the [Global Trade Analysis Project, or GTAP] 2017 model for its latest data and refinements.”

The report was prepared by Life Cycle Associates for the Renewable Fuels Association in advance of a virtual forum on Biofuels and Land Use Change held by CARB yesterday. RFA notes that CARB applies its decade-old ILUC penalties to every gallon of corn- and sorghum-based ethanol sold into California, with no evidence that such land use changes have actually occurred.

“RFA calls on the California Air Resources Board to fundamentally rethink its outdated, hypothetical ILUC penalties assigned to ethanol, for the reasons substantiated in this study. Real-world experience and empirical data show that the amount of cropland needed to satisfy California ethanol demand continues to trend downward, as crop yields increase and ethanol producers get more renewable fuel from each bushel,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper.