The latest USDA export outlook has overall agricultural exports expected to be lower this year, but one of the bright spots in the forecast is ethanol, according to USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer.

“For ethanol, we’re talking about a $3.5 billion export value rising to $4 billion in 2024,” said Meyer. “That’s about a 15 percent increase year over year in the overall value of ethanol exports.” It would also match the export sales record for ethanol set in 2022.

The May forecast for ethanol exports is $400 million higher than the February outlook as competitive U.S. prices facilitate a record volume projection.

U.S. export unit values are well below the record-highs of the previous three years, which leads to a more favorable U.S.-Brazil price spread and boosts the price competitiveness of U.S. ethanol exports. This boosted competitiveness clears the way for shipments to surpass the previous FY 2018 ethanol volume record of 1.6 billion gallons. Record shipments are expected to more than half of the top 10 markets, most importantly Canada, India, United Kingdom (U.K.), and Colombia. Canada remains the top destination by a wide margin supported by higher ethanol-gasoline blending in Ontario and Quebec. India’s push to higher fuel ethanol blending and border protection for fuel-quality ethanol create opportunity to backfill demand in the industrial chemical market. Exports to the United Kingdom remain at record levels with higher E10 blending and U.S. suppliers replace those on continental Europe. Surging U.S. ethanol exports to Colombia are supported by the country’s recent return to E10 blending despite a countervailing duty.