It’s certain at this point that sales of E15 in the United States hit a record last year, but the future of sales this year after May 1 is still uncertain.

According to a Renewable Fuels Association analysis of data released by state agencies in Minnesota and Iowa, total U.S. sales are estimated to have hit a record 1.11 billion gallons in 2023, up 8% over 2022. The increase was due to a combination of an expansion in the number of retail stations offering E15 and the savings that E15 continued to offer to consumers.

There are no official statistics on U.S. E15 volumes, but national sales can be estimated using Minnesota and Iowa data, given that the two states account for nearly 30% of all U.S. stations offering E15. RFA estimates national sales by multiplying its count of U.S. E15 stations by the average estimated volume per station in the two states. More than 3,000 stations offered E15 on average over the course of 2023, compared to 2,700 in 2022.

A key reason why the average E15 volume per station has increased over the last five years is that sales have been allowed during the summer months in conventional gasoline areas. However, if the administration does not take action within the next month, E15 sales will drop precipitously in most of the country this summer, as occurred in conventional gasoline areas prior to 2019.

RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper says at this point the only practical solution this summer is for waivers to be issued again by EPA as it has done in the past two years due to market conditions. “And frankly the market conditions that justified those waivers last year and two years ago still exist and in fact, you could argue that the the circumstances are worse,” said Cooper. “We have actually lower inventories of crude oil and petroleum products today than we had a year ago or two years ago. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains at a 40 plus year low. You’ve still got the the situation in Ukraine and now you’ve got a situation in the Middle East that is affecting global global energy markets.”

RFA joined several other organizations last week in sending a letter to EPA Administrator Michael Regan urging him to act swiftly on an emergency waiver for E15 sales.

Listen to Cooper’s comments on the need for a waiver.
RFA CEO Geoff Cooper need for E15 waiver 1:43