Natural gas and biofuels will make up the biggest share of the increase in what are known as “other liquid resources” in the world liquid fuel supply. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook for 2014 (IEO2014) says those fuels that include natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), biofuels, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), kerogen (oil shale), and refinery gain, made up just 14 percent of the world’s liquid fuels in 2010. But that number is expected to rise to 17 percent by 2040, driven by higher petroleum prices.

NGPL are the largest component of the other liquids, accounting for 68% of the total in 2010 (Figure 14). The increase in NGPL production is directly correlated to the increase in natural gas production. In contrast, increased production of the remaining other liquids (primarily biofuels, CTL, and GTL) is in response to policies that encourage growth in the expansion of these liquids with available domestic resources, such as coal and crops. In the IEO2014 Reference case, sustained high oil prices make the development of the non-NGPL other liquids more attractive. In addition, biofuels development also relies heavily on country-specific programs or mandates. Combined, the remaining, non-NGPL other liquid fuels grow at more than twice the rate of NGPL over the projection period.

Brazil is expected to put in 500,000 additional barrels of biofuels per day, with another 300,000 additional barrels of biofuels coming from China.