Ethanol producers might be fretting about the government’s proposal to lower the amount of the green fuel to be mixed into the Nation’s fuel supply. But this analysis from the University of Illinois points out that those Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) numbers don’t matter when it comes to ethanol going over the border and to foreign shores, a bright spot for the American industry.

An important point to note is that ethanol or other biofuels produced in the US and exported for consumption overseas do not count toward the blenders’ RFS obligations. The Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) associated with exported biofuels are retired and no longer eligible for use towards RFS compliance. Thus, exports are not substituted for domestic consumption but rather represent additional demand. Ultimately, exports provide a path around, rather than through, the ethanol blend wall by allowing the domestic industry to produce greater volumes of ethanol than the blend wall limitation implies for domestic use.

The analysis goes on to look at markets for American ethanol in Brazil, Canada, the European Union, Mexico and other foreign consumers and how it could take up the amount proposed to be lowered in the RFS.