A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division is cautiously optimistic about opportunities for US exports in grains, oilseeds and ethanol over the next three years.
“In the absence of major weather disruptions, global grain surpluses are expected to persist over the next three years. Acreage expansions and improvements to yields in competing export hubs will be headwinds for U.S. exports,” said Tanner Ehmke, manager of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division. “The bright spot will be the continual growth in demand. As the global middle class grows, so will the opportunities for US exports.”
The report predicts solid growth in short term demand for corn will continue while the ethanol sector will struggle to grow demand “due to changing market dynamics in Brazil, and remaining challenges related to higher blend levels in the US.”
Ehmke says both Brazil and China are determined to reduce their dependence on U.S. ethanol. “The US will shift focus to emerging markets like Mexico, Thailand, India and Indonesia in the medium term,” said Ehmke.