Distiller grain production was a hot topic discussed throughout the 2012 Export Exchange. Dr. Bob Wisner, Agriculture Extension Economics at Iowa State University, shared his research on the future of DDGS and what we can expect in the coming years. He also spoke on how this years drought affected DDGS production and it’s long-term affect on our US supply.
“The biofuel industry has expanded extremely rapidly in the last six years. It has become a major feed ingredient domestically and in the international market. Here in the United States it’s marketed in several different forms. We have dried distiller grains, that are dried to 10% moisture. We have a modified distiller grain that is partially dried. We have a wet distiller grain that is especially useful in the beef feeding industry. It gives a higher feed conversion efficiency versus corn than dry distiller grains. We have quite the combination of alternative uses here in the United States that for those of you outside the US are not generally available.”
“This is the first year in the last 17 years that we have seen a significant decline in distiller grain production. That of course is being driven by the severe drought here in the United States.”
In conclusion, Dr. Wisner shared these major things that will determine the supply and demand of DDGS.
- DDGS production follows ethanol production level and corn cost.
- Prices as % of corn/sbm price higher than in the past: 105%-108% of corn this winter.
- Prices for all feeds including DDGS will be extremely sensitive to South American weather in the next 4 months.
- After the current marketing year, with a return to more normal US crop yields, DDGS supplies will likely resume a longer-term uptrend, but at a slower rate than in the last six years.
- Risk of US domestic DDGS market saturation is low.
- DDGS exports likely will be growing competitor with the domestic feed industry.
- Longer-term future production and use depends heavily on policy issues and fuel prices.
- Important emerging issue: Will oil removal from DGS impact the value by species?
Listen to Dr. Bob Wisner’s complete presentation here: Dr. Wisner at Export Exchange
You can find photos from this years Export Exchange here: 2012 Export Exchange